Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set
Abstract
Quantitative scholarship on civil wars has long debated whether ethnic diversity breeds armed conflict. We go beyond this debate and show that highly diverse societies are not more conflict prone. Rather, states characterized by certain ethnopolitical configurations of power are more likely to experience violent conflict. First, armed rebellions are more likely to challenge states that exclude large portions of the population on the basis of ethnic background. Second, when a large number of competing elites share power in a segmented state, the risk of violent infighting increases. Third, incohesive states with a short history of direct rule are more likely to experience secessionist conflicts. We test these hypotheses for all independent states since 1945 using the new Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data set. Cross-national analysis demonstrates that ethnic politics is as powerful and robust in predicting civil wars as is a country's level of economic development. Using multinomial logit regression, we show that rebellion, infighting, and secession result from high degrees of exclusion, segmentation, and incohesion, respectively. More diverse states, on the other hand, are not more likely to suffer from violent conflict.
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- Rethinking Legitimacy and Illegitimacy in Violent Political Conflict
- Ethnic groups, political exclusion and domestic terrorism
- E pluribus unum, ex uno plures...
- Unequal Ground: Homelands and Conflict
- Race and Responsiveness: An Experiment with South African Politicians
- Shaking the tyrant’s bloody robe
- Scramble For Africa And Its Legacy, The
- The provision of private goods and the emergence of armed rebellion: t...
- Recouping after Coup-Proofing: Compromised Military Effectiveness and ...
- Challenging the State: Effect of Minority Discrimination, Economic Glo...
- Ethnonationalism and attitudes towards gay and lesbian rights in North...
- What Is Driving Gender Equality in Secondary Education? Evidence from ...
- Kikuyu or Kenyan? Government Service Provision and the Salience of Eth...
- Who Opposes Ethnic Territorial Autonomy?
- Suicide by Competition? Authoritarian Institutional Adaptation and Reg...
- Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-...
- Introduction
- vulnerability and compensation: constructing an index of co-optation i...
- Race-centrism: a critique and a research agenda
- The Onset of Ethnic War: A General Theory
- The timing of conflict violence: Hydraulic behavior in the Ugandan civ...
- Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Et...
- Authoritarianism, socioethnic diversity and political participation ac...
- Ethnic homophily perceptions as an emergent IHRM challenge: evidence f...
- Periphery versus Periphery: The Stakes of Separatist War
- Conditions for Peace and Conflict...
- Varying the Un-Variable...
- Communication networks and the transnational spread of ethnic conflict
- The Paradox of Legitimacy: Resilience, Successes, and the Multiple Ide...
- Desertion and Collective Action in Civil Wars
- Explaining Violent Intra-Ethnic Conflict...
- ‘Religious identity and coal development in Pakistan’: Ecology, land r...
- Indigenous Identity, Natural Resources, and Contentious Politics in Bo...
- Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes
- Women and Contentious Politics...
- Dominant Forms of Conflict in Changing Political Systems
- Nation Building. A Long-Term Perspective and Global Analysis
- Land, history or modernization? Explaining ethnic fractionalization
- Socially relevant ethnic groups, ethnic structure, and AMAR
- Best practices in the collection of conflict data
- Ethnic, Racial, and Nationalist Movements
- Insurgency
- Ethnic Divisions, Political Institutions and the Duration of Declines ...
- The Asymmetry of Legitimacy: Analyzing the Legitimation of Violence in...
- Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Afr...
- Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analys...
- Ethnic fractionalization, natural resources and armed conflict
- The contingent effect of institutions: Electoral formulas, ethnic pola...
- Political hierarchies and landscapes of conflict across Africa
- A Voice in the Process: A cross-national look at ethnic inclusion and ...
- Nations, states, and empires
- Ethnic Alliances Deconstructed: The PKK Sanctuary in Iraqi Kurdistan a...
- War
- How Governments Shape the Risk of Civil Violence: India's Federal Reor...
- Strength in Diversity? Group Heterogeneity in the Mobilization of Gras...
- The Escalation of Ethnonationalist Radicalization...
- Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War
- Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexist...
- Ethnicity and the spread of civil war
- Ethnicity and civil war
- External kin, economic disparity and minority ethnic group mobilizatio...
- Grievances, economic wealth, and civil conflict
- How ethnicity conditions the effect of oil and gas on civil conflict: ...
- Why Federalism Did Not Lead to Secession in Cameroon
- Secessionism, Institutions, and Change
- Group Segregation and Urban Violence
- The Political Economy of Urbanization in Modern Botswana
- Does Violence Pay? The Effect of Ethnic Rebellion on Overcoming Politi...
- Insurgency, Political Order, and SNC Wars: Elite-Proximityy in the Cen...
- Powersharing and Democratic Development
- Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Further Evi...
- Conclusion
- Nation-State Size, Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance in the Ad...
- Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars
- Limits of the Game of Masks: Class, Ethno-religious Identities, and th...
- Changing civilian support for the Maoist conflict in India
- Explaining the strength of civil society: Evidence from cross-sectiona...
- Altitude and adaptation: A study of geography and ethnic division
- The Use and Misuse of the “Minorities at Risk” Project
- The Ethnicity–Policy Preference Link in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Introduction
- Adivasis, Maoists and Insurgency in the Central Indian Tribal Belt
- Method Bias in Comparative Research: Problems of Construct Validity as...
- Elections and Ethnic Civil War
- States, the security sector, and the monopoly of violence...
- Talking to the ontological other: armed struggle and the negotiations ...
- Democracy, globalization and ethnic violence
- Competition Theory of Ethnic/Racial Conflict and Protest
- Diversity in National Legislatures Around the World
- Divisive Riches: Resource Ownership, Economic Disparities, and Conflic...
- 'Ethnic Conflictt in Colombia? The Impact of the Unit of Analysis and ...
- THE GENDER DIMENSIONS OF VIOLENCE AND CONFLICT: THE CASE OF INTER-ETHN...
- Ethnicity and strategy in the Bosnian civil war...
- When State Responses Fail: Religion and Secessionism in India 1952–200...
- Close Cousins or Distant Relatives? The Relationship Between Terrorism...
- Conceptualizing and Measuring Ethnic Politics: An Institutional Comple...
- Strategy and Competition in the Market and Nonmarket Arenas
- A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence
- Richardson in the Information Age: Geographic Information Systems and ...
- Horizontal Inequality, Crosscutting Cleavages, and Civil War
- PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure
- Organizational Commitment in Time of War: Assessing the Impact and Att...
- Media Independence and Trust in NGOs...
- On Environmental Change and Armed Conflict
- Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim That Drought Breeds Conflict
- Diversity and Development: The Interaction of Political Institutions w...
- I Will Survive: Coup-Proofing, Military Effectiveness, and Strategic S...
- Isolating the Ethnic Effect on Political Behavior: A Survey Experiment...
- Linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country
- Social Welfare and Ethnic Warfare: Exploring the Impact of Education o...
- Capacity to trust? Institutional capacity, conflict, and political tru...
- Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing ...
- Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset How Identity Salience, Fiscal...
- It’s the Local Economy, Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Confl...
- ‘Greed’ versus ‘Grievance’: A Useful Conceptual Distinction in the Stu...
- Measuring cultural diversity: ethnic, linguistic and religious fractio...
- State Incapacity by Design: Understanding the Bihar Story
- Conflict in the world polity - neo-institutional perspectives
- Does Globalization Breed Ethnic Discontent?
- Ethnic Diversity and Ethnic Strife. An Interdisciplinary Perspective
- Staatlichkeit und Demokratie in Südostasien
- Polygyny or Misogyny? Reexamining the “First Law of Intergroup Conflic...
- Three Questions about the Legitimacy of Groups and the Mobilization of...
- Ethnic and State History as Determinant of Ethnic Fractionalization
- Natural Resources, Weak State and Civil War: Can Rents Help Coup Prone...
- Ethno-Nationalist Dyads and Civil War: A GIS-Based Analysis
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