Exodus in the American metropolis: Predicting Black population decline in Chicago neighbourhoods

Urban population decline in the largest metropolitan regions of the United States is now explained almost exclusively by a ‘Black exodus’. In Chicago, competing ‘push’ explanations have been put forth to explain Black population loss in urban neighbourhoods, including housing instability, cost of living, unemployment and crime. However, no study to date estimates the predictive power of each of these factors. This article seeks to answer the research question: which neighbourhood characteristics predict Black exodus in Chicago? We explore relationships between Black population loss in Chicago and a comprehensive range of metrics representing economic and social conditions. A fixed-effects multivariate panel regression is specified for the years 2010 to 2018 at the census tract level and cross-checked with bivariate Granger causality tests. We find that foreclosure filings predict Black population decline, and suggest that government prioritise foreclosure relief policies to stem Black exodus.

美国最大大都市地区的城市人口下降现在几乎完全可以用“黑人外流”来解释。在芝加哥，人们针对城市街区中黑人人口的流失提出了相互竞争的“推动”解释，包括住房不稳定性、生活成本、失业和犯罪。然而，迄今为止没有任何研究对每一个此等因素的预测能力进行过估计。本文试图回答这样一个研究问题：在芝加哥，哪些街区特征预示着黑人的外流？我们研究芝加哥黑人人口流失与代表经济和社会状况的、全面的各项指标之间的关系。我们在人口普查区一级确定了 2010 年至 2018 年期间的固定效应多元面板回归，并用双变量格兰杰因果检验进行了交叉校验。我们发现止赎申请预示着黑人人口的减少，并建议政府优先考虑止赎救济政策以阻止黑人外流。