Application of Reliability Concept in Concrete Pavement Rehabilitation Decision Making

The application of reliability analysis during pavement design is essential to an understanding of the effects of variability on the quality of pavements so that those pavements can provide safe and comfortable service to the public. As well as being durable in service, these pavements must have minimum life-cycle costs (LCCs). Strategic analysis of pavement evaluation and repair (SAPER) software (Version 2.0) is an analysis tool developed on behalf of FHWA to assist with the evaluation and selection of appropriate strategies for the maintenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction (MRR) of concrete pavements at the project level, where design reliability is incorporated through a decision-making process (DMP). This paper describes the current practice for including reliability concepts in the SAPER software. It addresses the reliability approach used in a DMP and for prediction of pavement life extension for various distress models and the associated LCCs that incorporate reliability analysis for candidate MRR strategies. It shows that the reliability approach used in a DMP provides a simple, practical, and precise way to take into account the various factors that control pavement performance. The results for typical examples of pavement strategy selection approaches with various reliability parameters indicate that these parameters play an important role and must be considered through MRR strategy selection.