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First published online June 14, 2019

Understanding the Multimodal Evacuation Behavior for a Near-Field Tsunami

Alireza Mostafizi, Haizhong Wang [email protected], and Shangjia DongView all authors and affiliations

Volume 2673, Issue 11

https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119837511

Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling (ABTEM) framework in Netlogo to analyze the impact of various multimodal evacuation behaviors on life safety for a near-field tsunami. The objective of this work is to investigate how: milling time, choice of modes (i.e., walking and automobile), and critical variables involved in an evacuation scenario (e.g., walking, driving speed), affect life safety. Using the city of Seaside, Oregon, which is one of the most vulnerable cities on the Oregon coast, as a study site, different evacuation scenarios are included in the model to assess the impact of parameters involved on the mortality rate in a tsunami evacuation event. The results show that: choice of evacuation mode strongly and non-linearly influences the expected number of casualties; use of vehicles leads to the creation of congestion and bottlenecks, and thus, higher mortality rate; the mortality rate is strongly correlated with milling time; and the mortality rate is sensitive to the variations in average walking speed of the population. The results will help emergency managers, community leaders, and city and state agencies in their decision-making process for creating effective and efficient evacuation plans to increase life safety and community resilience.

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Published In

Transportation Research Record

Volume 2673, Issue 11

Pages: 480 - 492

Article first published online: June 14, 2019

Issue published: November 2019

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© National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2019.

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Authors

Affiliations

Alireza Mostafizi

School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

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Haizhong Wang

School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

[email protected]

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Shangjia Dong

School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

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Notes

Address correspondence to Dr. Haizhong Wang: [email protected]

Author Contributions

The concept of this study has been proposed and implemented by AM. In addition, AM has been the primary developer of the agent-based tsunami evacuation platform that has been utilized to carry out this research. Literature Review, Simulations, and Data Collection have been done by SD. The analysis and interpretation of results have been done by HW and AM. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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