![[PDF]](/pb-assets/Icons/adobe-pdf-icon-1498649896243.png){kind=icon}
Abstract
In this article, we develop and make available measures of public ideology in 2010 for the 50 American states, 435 congressional districts, and state legislative districts. We do this using the geospatial statistical technique of Bayesian universal kriging, which uses the locations of survey respondents, as well as population covariate values, to predict ideology for simulated citizens in districts across the country. In doing this, we improve on past research that uses the kriging technique for forecasting public opinion by incorporating Alaska and Hawaii, making the important distinction between ZIP codes and ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, and introducing more precise data from the 2010 Census. We show that our estimates of ideology at the state, congressional district, and state legislative district levels appropriately predict the ideology of legislators elected from these districts, serving as an external validity check.
References
|
Amos, Brian, McDonald, Michael P., Watkins, Russell. 2017. “When Boundaries Collide: Constructing a National Database of Demographic and Voting Statistics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 81 (Suppl. 1): 385–400. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Ansolabehere, Stephen D. 2011. “CCES, Common Content, 2008” Ver. 4. http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/14003 (accessed June 1, 2020). Google Scholar | |
|
Ansolabehere, Stephen D., Snyder, James M., Stewart, Charles. 2001. “Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 45:136–59. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Banerjee, Sudipto, Carlin, Bradley P., Gelfand, Alan E. 2015. Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data. 2nd ed. New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC. Google Scholar | |
|
Berry, William D., Ringquist, Evan J., Hanson, Richard C. Fording Russell L. 1998. “Measuring Citizen and Government Ideology in the American States, 1960-93.” American Journal of Political Science 42:327–48. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Beyer, Kirsten M. M., Schultz, Alan F., Rushton, Gerard. 2008. “Using ZIP Codes as Geocodes in Cancer Research.” In Geocoding Health Data: The Use of Geographic Codes in Cancer Prevention and Control, Research, and Practice, eds. Rushton, Gerard, Armstrong, Marc P., Gittler, Josephine, Greene, Barry R., Pavlik, Claire E., West Dale L., Michele M., Zimmerman. New York: CRC Press, 37–68. Google Scholar | |
|
Cressie, Noel A. C. 1993. Statistics for Spatial Data. Rev. ed. New York: John Wiley. Google Scholar | |
|
DeLeon, Richard E., Naff, Katherine C. 2004. “Identity Politics and Local Political Culture: Some Comparative Results from the Social Capital Benchmark Survey.” Urban Affairs Review 39 (6): 689–719. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Diggle, Peter J., Ribeiro, Paulo J. 2007. Model-Based Geostatistics. New York: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Djupe, Paul A., Sokhey, Anand E. 2011. “Interpersonal Networks and Democratic Politics.” PS: Political Science & Politics 44 (1): 55–59. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Elazar, Daniel J. 1966. American Federalism: A View from the States. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell. Google Scholar | |
|
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C. 1980. “Policy Representation of Constituency Interests.” Political Behavior 2:91–106. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., McIver, John P. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. New York: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Fischer, David Hackett . 1989. Albion’s Seed: Four British Folkways in America. New York: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Garreau, Joel . 1981. The Nine Nations of North America. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Google Scholar | |
|
Gastil, Raymond D. 1975. Cultural Regions of the United States. Seattle: University of Washington Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Gelman, Andrew, Little, Thomas C. 1997. “Poststratification into Many Categories Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression.” Survey Methodology 23:127–35. Google Scholar | |
|
Gimpel, James G., Schuknecht, Jason E. 2003. Patchwork Nation: Sectionalism and Political Change in American Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Grammich, Clifford, Hadaway, Kirk, Houseal, Richard, Jones, Dale E., Krindatch, Alexei, Stanley, Richie, Taylor, Richard H. 2012. 2010 U.S. Religion Census: Religious Congregations & Membership Study. Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies. https://www.amazon.com/2010-U-S-Religion-Census-Congregations/dp/0615623441 (accessed June 1, 2020). Google Scholar | |
|
Grubesic, Tony H. 2008. “Zip Codes and Spatial Analysis: Problems and Prospects.” Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 42 (2): 129–49. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Grubesic, Tony H., Matisziw, Timothy C. 2006. “On the Use of ZIP Codes and ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) for the Spatial Analysis of Epidemiological Data.” International Journal of Health Geographics 5:58. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Benjamin E., Vivyan, Nick. 2018. “Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples.” Political Science Research and Methods 6 (3): 571–91. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Huckfeldt, Robert, Sprague, John T. 1995. Citizens, Politics, and Social Communication: Influence in an Election Campaign. New York: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Jackson, John E. 1989. “An Errors in Variables Approach to Estimating Models with Small Area Data.” Political Analysis 1:157–80. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Jackson, John E. 2008. “Endogeneity and Structural Equation Estimation in Political Science.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, eds. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Brady, Henry E., Collier, David. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 404–431. Google Scholar | |
|
Kernell, Georgia . 2009. “Giving Order to Districts: Estimating Voter Distributions with National Election Returns.” Political Analysis 17:215–35. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Lax, Jeffrey R., Phillips, Justin H. 2009. “How Should We Estimate Opinion in the States?” American Journal of Political Science 53:107–21. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Lieske, Joel . 1993. “Regional Subcultures of the United States.” Journal of Politics 55 (4): 888–913. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
McCarty, Nolan M., Poole, Keith T., Rosenthal, Howard. 1997. Income Redistribution and the Realignment of American Politics. American Enterprise Institute Studies on Understanding Economic Inequality. Washington, DC: AEI Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Minnesota Population Center . 2011. National Historic Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota. Google Scholar | |
|
Monogan, James E., Gill, Jeff. 2016. “Measuring State and District Ideology with Spatial Realignment.” Political Science Research and Methods 4 (1): 97–121. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Monogan, James E., Konisky, David M., Woods, Neal D. 2017. “Gone with the Wind: Federalism and the Strategic Location of Air Polluters.” American Journal of Political Science 61(2):257–70. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, Bafumi, Joseph. 2004. “Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls.” Political Analysis 12:375–85. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, Bafumi, Joseph. 2006. “State-Level Opinions from National Surveys: Poststratification Using Multilevel Logistic Regression.” In Public Opinion in State Politics, ed. Cohen, Jeffrey E . Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp. 209–228. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Pool, Ithiel de Sola, Abelson, Robert P., Popkin, Samuel L. 1965. Candidates, Issues, and Strategies. Cambridge: MIT Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Poole, Keith T., Rosenthal, Howard. 1997. Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting. New York: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Putnam, Robert D. 1966. “Political Attitudes and the Local Community.” American Political Science Review 60(3):640–54. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Putnam, Robert D. 1993. Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Ravishanker, Nalini, Dey, Dipak K. 2002. A First Course in Linear Model Theory. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC. Google Scholar | |
|
Selb, Peter, Munzert, Simon. 2011. “Estimating Constituency Preferences from Sparse Survey Data Using Auxiliary Geographic Information.” Political Analysis 19 (4): 455–70. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Shor, Boris, McCarty, Nolan. 2011. “The Ideological Mapping of American Legislatures.” American Political Science Review 105 (3): 530–51. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Sinclair, Betsy . 2012. The Social Citizen: Peer Networks and Political Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Tam Cho, Wendy K, Gimpel, James G. 2007. “Prospecting for (Campaign) Gold.” American Journal of Political Science 51(2):255–68. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Tausanovitch, Chris, Warshaw, Christopher. 2013. “Measuring Constituent Policy Preferences in Congress, State Legislatures, and Cities.” Journal of Politics 75 (2): 330–42. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Tobler, Waldo R. 1970. “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region.” Economic Geography 46 (2): 234–40. Google Scholar | |
|
United States Department of Agriculture . 2013. “2013 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes.” http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx (accessed June 1, 2020). Google Scholar | |
|
Weber, Ronald E., Hopkins, Anne H., Mezey, Michael L., Munger, Frank. 1972. “Computer Simulation of State Electorates.” Public Opinion Quarterly 36:549–65. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Weber, Ronald E., Shaffer, William R. 1972. “Public Opinion and American State Policy-Making.” Midwest Journal of Political Science 16:683–99. Google Scholar | Crossref |
