Transitional Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Model

The Transitional Alternative Fuels Vehicle model simulates the use and cost of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles over the period 1996 to 2010. It is designed to examine the transitional period of alternative fuel and vehicle use. It accounts for dynamic linkages between investments and vehicle and fuel production capacity, tracks vehicle stock evolution, and represents the effects of increasing scale and expanding retail fuel availability on the effective costs to consumers. Fuel and vehicle prices and choices are endogenous. Preliminary results that illustrate the role of potentially important transitional phenomena are discussed. This model extends previous, long-run comparative static analyses of policies that assumed mature vehicle and fuel industries. As a dynamic transitional model, it can help to assess what may be necessary to reach mature, large-scale, alternative fuel and vehicle markets, and what it would cost.