Delay Variability at Signalized Intersections
Abstract
Delays that individual vehicles may experience at a signalized intersection are usually subject to large variation because of the randomness of traffic arrivals and interruption caused by traffic signal controls. Although such variation may have important implications for the planning, design, and analysis of signal controls, currently no analytical model is available to quantify it. The development of an analytical model for predicting the variance of overall delay is described. The model is constructed on the basis of the delay evolution patterns under two extreme traffic conditions: highly undersaturated and highly oversaturated conditions. A discrete cycle-by-cycle simulation model is used to generate data for calibrating and validating the proposed model. The practical implications of the model are demonstrated through its use in determining optimal cycle times with respect to delay variability and in assessing level of service according to the percentiles of overall delay.
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Article first published: January 2000
Issue published: January 2000
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