Analysis of Road Risk by Age and Gender Category: Time Series Approach

A road safety analysis for different age and gender categories of road users is introduced. In contrast to many previous studies, the time series of road crashes by age and gender category is considered. The objective is to analyze Belgian data on the yearly number of fatalities for age and gender groups by using a decomposition of the number of fatalities in terms of exposure and risk in a time series perspective. For each category, a state space time series model is developed for the risk, which is defined in this study as the number of fatalities per capita. It was found that road risk is changing over age groups according to a U-shaped curve and that men generally have a higher risk than women. Further, the risk is decreasing over time but not at the same rate for all age and gender groups. The highest yearly reduction in risk is found for the oldest and youngest road users. The models also are useful to assess the attainability of formulated road safety targets, which makes them useful policy instruments. Especially for young men, the reduction in road risk is not in line with Belgian and Flemish policy expectations.