Estimating a Statewide Transportation Infrastructure Funding Shortfall Using Long-Range Plans of Metropolitan Planning Organizations

The information contained in long-range plans of metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) can be amalgamated to estimate a statewide, metropolitan, 20-year transportation infrastructure funding shortfall. This article describes the methodology used to calculate such a shortfall in Florida, with information from all 26 MPOs in the state. The cost of needed projects and the dollar amount of anticipated revenue were extracted from each MPO plan. The difference between the two figures is the shortfall from that MPO. The methodology included steps taken to normalize the data for differing plan lengths, analysis base years, and rates of inflation. The results of the study show that Florida is expected to experience a $62.5 billion shortfall over the period 2005 to 2025. This is an annualized shortfall of $3.1 billion and represents a total statewide shortfall of 42.9%. The study concluded that Florida's shortfall has been increasing since the study was first conducted in 1997. Further, the data suggest the rate of increase may be accelerating. Shortfalls were not uniform in MPOs. In fact, they were observed to be smaller in MPO regions with slower population growth rates or dedicated sources of local funding such as impact fees or fully enacted local option gas taxes. Florida's transportation leaders have found this project useful in communicating the funding circumstances in the state. A statewide shortfall can help decision makers see how dramatic the shortfalls are and direct available resources toward urban areas.