Macroscopic Model of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Municipalities

In the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector, urban municipalities hold significant responsibilities. The Municipal Transportation and Greenhouse Gas (MUNTAG) model was developed to help municipalities estimate their current transportation emissions, set future targets, and run forecasting scenarios and responses to policies. A set of seven criteria was adopted for the development of the model including low input, ease of use, and feasibility (i.e., the model includes only variables that are controlled by municipalities). The model contains five strategies: land use intensification, public transport, active transport, financial policies, and vehicle technology. Each use is addressed separately and then integrated into one working model. Motorized passenger kilometers traveled (PKT) per capita is first estimated with the gross domestic product per capita and population density. With transit infrastructure indicators, PKT per capita is calculated for each transit mode. Bicycle infrastructure is included to calculate the bicycle mode share. Response to several financial policies (e.g., parking price, area pricing) can be modeled by using elasticity statistics gathered from the literature. Finally, changes in vehicle technology (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles) can be modeled by adjusting the various emission factors. One advantage of the model is that all parameters can be adapted fairly easily to account for municipal specificities. Overall, it is a macroscopic, aggregate, and static model suited for medium-sized and large municipalities that can be useful as a screening tool.