Predicting Route Choices of Drivers Given Categorical and Numerical Information on Delays Ahead: Effects of Age, Experience, and Prior Knowledge

In recent years there has been a considerable increase in the systems used to provide real-time traffic information to motorists. Examples of such systems include dynamic message signs and 511 travel information systems. However, such systems can be used to reduce congestion—one of their primary purposes—only if one can predict the route choices of drivers as a function of the information displayed. This simulator study looks at the diversion pattern that occurs when delays are reported ahead on the main route and how these diversion patterns vary as a function of delay times (for numerical delay signs), message content (for categorical delay signs), use of 511, and drivers’ familiarity with the alternative route travel times across two different age groups. For numerical delay signs, the study shows that one can reliably predict the diversion frequencies at the different delays and across the different ages; then it is possible for traffic engineers to know ahead of time how likely it is for drivers to take an alternative route. For categorical delay signs, the findings indicate that drivers’ knowledge of the alternative route travel time affects the choices of older versus younger or middle-aged adults differently. When the times are not known, the two groups behave differently; when the times are known, the groups behave similarly. This finding suggests that traffic engineers should try where possible to present the alternative route travel times as well as the delays on the main route.