Outcome of Transportation Projects under Uncertainty: Examination of Benefit–Cost Ratios and Other Impacts
Abstract
Budget constraints and competing opportunities demand thoughtful evaluation of projects before investment. Significant uncertainty surrounds travel choices, demographic futures, project costs, and model parameters. The impact of this uncertainty was explored with the use of hundreds of sensitivity test runs conducted across 28 random parameter sets to evaluate highway capacity expansion and toll project scenarios in Austin, Texas. The effects of different parameter sets on project benefit–cost ratios, crash counts, emissions, traffic volumes, and tolling revenues were examined in detail. Linear regression results showed that link capacity, link performance parameters, and their covariation were key to the results, followed by the elasticity of demand, trip growth rates, and values of travel time.
Get full access to this article
View all access and purchase options for this article.
References
1. A Budget for the Long Term. The Economist, April 4, 2011. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/04/american_government_debt.
2. British Austerity and the Price of Black Swan Insurance. The Economist, Feb. 3, 2011. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/02/budget_cuts.
3. No Gold in the State. The Economist, May 21, 2011. http://www.economist.com/node/13702838?story_id=E1_TPSDNRPR.
4. Construction Cost Indices. Washington State Department of Transportation, 2011. http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/biz/construction/CostIndex/pdf/CostIndexData.pdf.
5. Kockelman K., Xie C., Fagnant D., Thompson T., McDonald-Buller E., and Waller T. Comprehensive Evaluation of Transportation Projects: A Toolkit for Sketch Planning. Research report 0-6235-1. Texas Department of Transportation, Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, 2010.
6. Xie C., Kockelman K.M., and Waller S. T. Maximum Entropy Method for Subnetwork Origin–Destination Trip Matrix Estimation. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2196, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2010, pp. 111–119.
7. Bain R., and Plantagie J. W. Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2004. Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill International, London, 2004.
8. Bain R., and Plantagie J. W. Infrastructure Finance: The Anatomy of Construction Risk: Lessons from a Millennium of PPP Experience. Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill International, London, 2007.
9. Flyvbjerg B., Skamris Holm M. K., and Buhl S. How Common and How Large Are Cost Overruns in Transport Infrastructure Projects? Transport Reviews, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2003, pp. 71–78.
10. Flyvbjerg B., Skamris Holm M. K., and Buhl S. How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 71, No. 2, 2005, pp. 131–146.
11. Lemp J.D., and Kockelman K. M. Understanding and Accommodating Risk and Uncertainty in Toll Road Projects: A Review of the Literature. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2132, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2009, pp. 106–112.
12. Ševčíková H., Raftery A., and Waddell P. Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations using Bayesian Melding. Transportation Research Part B: Methodology, Vol. 41, No. 6, 2007, pp. 652–659.
13. Gregor B. GreenSTEP Model Documentation. Oregon Department of Transportation, Salem, 2009.
14. Wang M. Uncertain Analysis of Inventory Theoretical Model for Freight Mode Choice. Proc., International Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation, 2008.
15. Zhao Y., and Kockelman K. Propagation of Uncertainty Through Travel Demand Models. Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 36, No. 1, 2002, pp. 145–163.
16. Pradhan A., and Kockelman K. M. Uncertainty Propagation in an Integrated Land Use–Transportation Modeling Framework: Output Variation via UrbanSim. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1805, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2002, 128–135.
17. Krishnamurthy S., and Kockelman K. M. Propagation of Uncertainty in Transportation Land Use Models: Investigation of DRAM-EMPAL and UTPP Predictions in Austin, Texas. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1831, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 219–229.
18. Lemp J.D., and Kockelman K. M. Anticipating Welfare Impacts via Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Comparison of Aggregate and Activity-Based Approaches for the Austin, Texas, Region. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2133, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2009, pp. 11–22.
19. Ben-Akiva M., and Lerman S. Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1985.
20. Floyd R. W. Algorithm 97: Shortest Path. Communications of the ACM, Vol. 5, No. 6, 1962, p. 345.
21. Geurs K., Zondag B., de Jong G., and de Bok M. Accessibility Appraisal of Land-Use/Transport Policy Strategies: More Than Just Adding up Travel-Time Savings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 15, No. 7, 2010, pp. 382–393.
22. Bonneson J.A., and Pratt M. P. Road Safety Design Workbook. Texas Department of Transportation. College Station, 2009.
23. Rural and Urban Crashes and Injuries by Severity 2008. Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, 2009.
24. Asset Management—Evaluation and Economic Investment. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/asstmgmt/primer03.cfm.
25. Robinson R. City of Austin Population and Households Forecast by ZIP Code. City of Austin, Austin, Tex., 2008.
26. Texas Tollways—Austin Area Toll Roads. Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, 2011. http://www.texastollways.com/austintollroads/english/rates.htm.
27. IH 35E Managed Lanes from IH 635—To: US 380 Preliminary Financial Feasibility Study (PFFS). Final draft. Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, 2008.
28. Fagnant D., Kockelman K., and Xie C. Project Evaluation Toolkit: A Sketch Planning Tool for Evaluating Highway Transportation Projects. Texas Department of Transportation, Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, 2011.
29. Highway Capacity Manual. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000.
30. Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Dowling Associates, Inc., System Metrics Group, and Texas Transportation Institute. NCHRP Report 618: Cost-Effective Performance Measures for Travel Time Delay, Variation, and Reliability. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2008.
31. Blincoe L., Seay A., Zaloshnja E., Miller T., Romano E., Luchter S., and Spicer R. The Economic Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes 2000. NHTSA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2002.
32. Maibach M., Schreyer C., Sutter D., van Essen H. P., Boon B.H., Smokers R., Schroten A., Doll C., Pawlowska B., and Bak M. Handbook on Estimation of External Costs in the Transport Sector. CE Delft, Delft, Netherlands, 2008. www.ce.nl.
Cite article
Cite article
Cite article
OR
Download to reference manager
If you have citation software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice
Information, rights and permissions
Information
Published In
Article first published online: January 1, 2012
Issue published: January 2012
Authors
Metrics and citations
Metrics
Journals metrics
This article was published in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board.
VIEW ALL JOURNAL METRICSArticle usage*
Total views and downloads: 37
*Article usage tracking started in December 2016
Altmetric
See the impact this article is making through the number of times it’s been read, and the Altmetric Score.
Learn more about the Altmetric Scores
Articles citing this one
Receive email alerts when this article is cited
Web of Science: 0
Crossref: 3
- Environmental sustainable decision making– The need and obstacles for ...
- Anticipating Roadway Expansion and Tolling Impacts: Toolkit for Abstra...
- Effects of Uncertainty in Speed–Flow Curve Parameters on a Large-Scale...
Figures and tables
Figures & Media
Tables
View Options
Get access
Access options
If you have access to journal content via a personal subscription, university, library, employer or society, select from the options below:
loading institutional access options
Alternatively, view purchase options below:
Purchase 24 hour online access to view and download content.
Access journal content via a DeepDyve subscription or find out more about this option.
