Reverification of an Activity-Based Microsimulation of Travel Demand during a Transition in the Transportation Environment in Jakarta, Indonesia

Following the analyses of household auto–motorcycle ownership and joint mode and destination choice models presented at previous TRB annual meetings, this paper offers the results of reverification of an activity-based microsimulation of travel demand for the Jakarta, Indonesia, metropolitan area that was developed from 2002 surveys. Comprehensive household and household member data from a large-scale commuter travel survey in 2010 were used as inputs to the microsimulation. This paper first presents the overall microsimulation processes and model validation, along with several activity scheduling decision rules and intrahousehold interaction rules, including joint tour–activity generation and household maintenance tour allocation. For model reverification, the microsimulation outcomes of the new base year of 2010 were investigated both internally and externally. The internal investigation involved comparison with the detailed activity-related data from a person-tracking survey that was able to catch all the trips made by the respondents carrying a GPS logger. The external investigation involved the comparison with the observed traffic counts on two major screen lines in the region. The paper also discusses the results and secondary or emerging effects and trends caused by the changing transportation environment. Overall, the activity-based microsimulation model developed from the 2002 surveys provides only travel estimates of limited accuracy. Thus, the authors’ further effort includes reestablishment of comprehensive activity-based models resulting from the latest abundant and accurate travel data source so as to make a powerful, practical decision-making tool useful for policy applications not only in Jakarta but also in other metropolitan regions.