Life-Oriented Approach of Modeling Commute Mode Loyalty and Transition Behavior

This study developed a dynamic model for individuals’ commute mode choice over their lifetime by using retrospective survey data. The study conceptualized that individuals reassessed their choice of commute mode when they relocated to a new residential location. Following the re-appraisal, people either continued using the same mode, which was considered mode loyalty, or made a transition to a new mode, which was considered mode transition in this study. The study developed a panel-based random-parameters logit model. One key feature of this study is a life-oriented approach to accommodate the effects of life-cycle events, longer-term changes, life-oriented sociodemographic transitions, and accessibility transitions. The model results suggest that the high-income group tends to be car loyal. No car ownership over the lifetime and the addition of a job increase the probability of transit loyalty. Individuals with no children in the household and residing in an area with high walk and bike usage have a higher probability to be loyal to active transportation. A decrease in household income and tenure transition from owned to rental are likely to trigger a transition from car to transit. However, the presence of children and the addition of a car increase the transition propensity from transit to car. The model results suggest that the use of life-oriented characteristics to explain longer-term commute mode loyalty and transition behavior provides important behavioral insights into the dynamics of individuals’ travel behavior over their lifetime.