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Abstract
In this study, we examine race, sex, and self-reported arrest histories (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97; N = 7,335) for the period 1997 through 2008 covering cumulative arrest histories through ages 18 and 23. The analysis produces three key findings: (a) males have higher cumulative prevalence of arrest than females and (b) there are important race differences in the probability of arrest for males but not for females. Assuming that the missing cases are missing at random (MAR), about 30% of Black males have experienced at least one arrest by age 18 (vs. about 22% for White males); by age 23 about 49% of Black males have been arrested (vs. about 38% for White males). Earlier research using the NLSY97 showed that the risk of arrest by age 23 was 30%, with nonresponse bounds [25.3%, 41.4%]. This study indicates that the risk of arrest is not evenly distributed across the population. Future research should focus on the identification and management of collateral risks that often accompany arrest experiences.
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Author Biographies
Robert Brame is a professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of South Carolina. His research interests include crime measurement, criminal recidivism, and demographic offending patterns.
Shawn D. Bushway is a professor of criminal justice and public administration and policy at the University at Albany (SUNY). He received his PhD in public policy analysis and political economy in 1996 from the Heinz School of Public Policy and Management at Carnegie Mellon University. His current research focuses on the process of desistance, the impact of a criminal history on subsequent outcomes, and the distribution of discretion in the criminal justice sentencing process.
Ray Paternoster is a professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland. His research interests include offender decision making, quantitative methods, criminological theory, and issues related to the death penalty.
Michael G. Turner is an associate professor in the Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. His research interests include testing criminological theories and understanding the nature and extent of different types of victimization. His research has recently appeared in Pediatrics, Journal of Criminal Justice, and Criminal Justice and Behavior.
