![[PDF]](/pb-assets/Icons/adobe-pdf-icon-1498649896243.png){kind=icon}
Abstract
Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces and (2) violence that kill civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p < .05 percent). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. The authors identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts.
Keywords Insurgency, opportunity costs, rebel recruitment, unemployment
References
|
Akerlof, George, Yellen, Janet L. 1994. “Gang Behavior, Law Enforcement, and Community Values”. In Values and Public Policy, ed. Aaron, Henry J., Mann, Thomas E., Taylor, Timothy, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Google Scholar | |
|
Al Jazeera . 2009. “Key Quotes from New Taliban Book”, posted July 27, 2009. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/07/200972775236982270.html Google Scholar | |
|
Becker, G. 1968. “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76:169–217. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Benmelech, Efraim, Berrebi, Claude, Klor, Esteban. 2010. Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions. NBER Working Paper 16493 (October). Google Scholar | |
|
Berman, Eli . 2009. Radical, Religious and Violent: The New Economics of Terrorism. Cambridge MA: MIT Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Berman, Eli, Laitin, David. D. 2008. “Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model.” Journal of Public Economics 92 (10-11): 1942–67. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Berman, E., Shapiro, J. N., Felter, J. H. 2008. “Can Hearts and Minds be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq.” NBER Working Paper 14606. Google Scholar | |
|
Blattman, Christopher, Miguel, Edward. 2009. “Civil War.” NBER Working Paper #14801. Google Scholar | |
|
Brainard, L., Chollet, D. H. 2007. “Introduction.” In Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict, and Security in the 21st Century, ed. Brainard, L., Chollet, D. H. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Google Scholar | |
|
Cassidy, R. 2006. Counterinsurgency and the Global War on Terror. Westport, CT: Praeger. Google Scholar | |
|
Chiarelli, P. 2006. U.S. Army Commander, Multinational Corps Iraq, press briefing, December 8, 2006. Google Scholar | |
|
Clutterbuck, R. 1966. The Long Long War: Counterinsurgency in Malaya and Vietnam. Ann Arbor, MI: Praeger. Google Scholar | |
|
Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56:563–95. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Combating Terrorism Center , US Military Academy . 2006. “Captured Zarqawi Network Letters from Iraq” posted April 20, 2006. www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/harmony.asp Google Scholar | |
|
Crain, Charles . 2007. “Behind the Baghdad Wall.” Time, May 9. Google Scholar | |
|
Department of Defense . 2008. Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq: March 2008 Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2008. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2008/iraq-security-stability_mar2008.pdf Google Scholar | |
|
Dube, Oeindrila, Vargas, Juan. 2008. “Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Columbia.” CID Graduate Student and Postdoctoral Fellow Working Paper No. 14. Google Scholar | |
|
Fearon, J. 2008. “Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War.” In Institutions and Economic Performance, ed. Helpman, E. , Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Fearon, James D., Laitin, David D. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97:75–90. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Fischer, Stanley, Alonso-Gamo, Patricia, von Allmen, Ulric Erickson. 2001. “Economic Developments in the West Bank and Gaza since Oslo.” The Economic Journal 111:F254–75. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Fishman, B., Moghadam, A., eds 2008. Bombers, Bank Accounts, and Bleedout: Al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s Road in and out of Iraq. Combating Terrorism Center, US Military Academy. West Point, N.Y. Google Scholar | |
|
Galula, D. 1964. Counterinsurgency Warfare; Theory and Practice. New York: Praeger. Google Scholar | |
|
Government Accountability Office . 2007. The Department of Defense’s Use of Solatia and Condolence Payments in Iraq and Afghanistan. GAO publication 07-699. http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-699 Google Scholar | |
|
Grogger, Jeff . 1998. “Market Wages and Youth Crime.” Journal of Labor Economics 16(4): 756–91. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Grossman, H. 1991. “A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections.” American Economic Review 81:912–21. Google Scholar | ISI | |
|
Gould, Eric D., Weinberg, Bruce A., Mustard, David B. 2002. “Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 84(1): 45–61. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Hendawi, Hamza . 2008. Baghdad’s Walls Keep Peace but Feel like a Prison. Associated Press, June 27, 2008. Google Scholar | |
|
Hidalgo, F. Daniel, Naidu, Suresh, Nichter, Simeon, Richardson, Neal. 2010. Economic Determinants of Land Invasions. Review of Economics and Statistics 92(3): 505–523. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Kalyvas, S. N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. New York: Cambridge University . Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Kanaan, Osama . 1998. “Private Investment under Uncertainty in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.” In The Economy of the West Bank and Gaza Strip: Recent Experience, Prospects and Challenges to Private Sector Development, ed. Barnett, S., Calika, N., Chua, D., Kanaan, O., Zavadjuil, M. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Google Scholar | |
|
Kitson, F. 1971. Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency, Peace-keeping. Harrisburg, PA: Stackpole. Google Scholar | |
|
Komer, Robert . 1972. The Malayan Emergency in Retrospect: Organization of a Successful Counterinsurgency Effort. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, R-957. Google Scholar | |
|
Long, Austin . 2006. On “Other War”: Lessons from Five Decades of RAND Counterinsurgency Research. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Google Scholar | |
|
Mao, Z. [1937] 2000. On Guerilla Warfare. Griffin, S. B. , Trans. Champaign: University of Illinois Press. Google Scholar | |
|
McMaster, H. R . 2008. “On War: Lessons to be Learned.” Survival 50 (1), Feb. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Sergenti, E. 2004. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 112:725–53. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Multi-National Corps Iraq . 2009. Money as a Weapons System (MAAWS): MNC-I CJ8 SOP. Available at http://publicintelligence.net/money-as-a-weapon-system-maaws/ Google Scholar | |
|
Petraeus, David . 2006. “Learning Counterinsurgency: Observations from Soldiering in Iraq.” Military Review, January–February. Google Scholar | |
|
Popkin, S. L. 1979. The Rational Peasant: The Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam. Berkeley: University of California Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Raphael, S., Winter-Ebmer, R. 2001. “Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime.” Journal of Law and Economics 44:259–83. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Rhode, David, Sanger, David E. 2007. “How the ‘Good War’ in Afghanistan Went Bad.” New York Times, August 12, 2007. Google Scholar | |
|
Sepp, Kalev . 2005. “’Best practices’ in Counterinsurgency.” Military Review, May/June. Google Scholar | |
|
Taber, R. 1965. The War of the Flea: A Study of Guerilla Warfare Theory and Practice. New York: Lyle Stuart. Google Scholar | |
|
Thompson, R. G. K. 1966. Defeating Communist Insurgency: The Lessons of Malaya and Vietnam, Studies in International Security. New York: Praeger. Google Scholar | |
|
Trinquier, R. 1961. Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency. Trans. Lee, D. New York: Praeger. Google Scholar | |
|
Warrick, Joby . 2008. “CIA Buys Afghan Chief’s Loyalty with Viagra.” Washington Post, 26 December. http://sfchronicle.us/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/26/MN0S14V9PR.DTL (accessed June 6, 2010). Google Scholar | |
|
United States Army . 2006. The U.S. Army Counterinsurgency Field Manual (U.S. Army Field Manual No. 3-24). http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24fd.pdf Google Scholar |
