![[PDF]](/pb-assets/Icons/adobe-pdf-icon-1498649896243.png){kind=icon}
Abstract
While case-based narratives from civil wars often stress the ethnic dimension of civilian atrocities, cross-national studies have found limited evidence in support of such contentions. Addressing this debate, we argue that warring actors often use ethnic affiliation to identify groups of suspected enemy supporters when individual wartime affiliations are not known. Since warring actors depend on their civilian constituencies for support, collective targeting of the enemy’s co-ethnics becomes a strategy for weakening the enemy’s capacity. Armed actors are thus more likely to engage in civilian abuse in areas where the enemy’s ethnic constituency resides. To examine this argument, we combine new georeferenced event data on violence against civilians in African conflicts, 1989–2009, with spatial data on the location of the warring actors’ ethnic constituencies. The analysis shows that the number of civilians killed by both governments and rebel groups is higher in areas inhabited by the enemy’s ethnic constituency.
References
|
Azam, Jean-Paul, Hoeffler, Anke. 2002. “Violence against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror?” Journal of Peace Research 39 (4): 461-85. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Balcells, Laia . 2011. “Continuation of Politics by Two Means: Direct and Indirect Violence in Civil War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (3): 397-22. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Bates, Robert . 1983. “Modernization, Ethnic Competition and the Rationality of Politics in Contemporary Africa.” In State versus Ethnic Claims: African Policy Dilemmas, edited by Rotchild , Donald, Olorunsola, Victor, 152-71. Boulder, CO: Westview. Google Scholar | |
|
Bhavnani, Ravi, Miodownik, Dan, Choi, Hyun Jin. 2011. “Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (1): 133-58. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Brubaker, Rogers . 2004. Ethnicity without Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Buhaug, Halvard, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, Holterman, Helge, Østby, Gudrun, Tollefsen, Andreas Forø. 2011. “It’s the Local Economy Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Conflict Outbreak Location.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (5): 814-40. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Carter, David B., Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010. “Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data.” Political Analysis 18 (3): 271-92. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Girardin, Luc. 2007. “Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies.” American Political Science Review 101 (1): 173-85. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian. 2009. “Introduction to Special Issue on ‘Disaggregating Civil War.’” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 487-95. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andreas, Min, Brian. 2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics 62 (1): 87-119. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Chandra, Kanchan . 2004. Why Ethnic Parties Succeed. Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in India. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Chandra, Kanchan . 2006. “What is Ethnic Identity and Does It Matter?” Annual Review of Political Science 9:397-424. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Croicu, Mihai, Sundberg, Ralph. 2012. “UCDP GED Conflict Polygons Dataset Codebook version 1.1-2011” Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. Google Scholar | |
|
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher, Weidmann, Nils B.. 2010. “Shared Space: Ethnic Groups, State Accommodation, and Localized Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 54 (4): 1035-54. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Cunningham, David E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, Salehyan, Idean. 2009. “It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 570-97. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Downes, Alexander B. 2006. “Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War.” International Security 30 (4): 152-95. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Eck, Kristine . 2009. “From Armed Conflict to War: Ethnic Mobilization and Conflict Intensification.” International Studies Quarterly 53 (3): 369-88. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Eck, Kristine . 2012. “In Data We Trust? A Comparison of UCDP GED and ACLED Conflict Events Datasets.” Cooperation and Conflict 47 (1): 124-41. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Eck, Kristine, Hultman, Lisa. 2007. “One-sided Violence against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data.” Journal of Peace Research 44 (2): 233-46. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Eifert, Benn, Miguel, Edward, Posner, Daniel N.. 2010. “Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa.” American Journal of Political Science 54 (2): 494-510. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Fearon, James D. 2006. “Ethnic Mobilization and Ethnic Violence.” In Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, edited by Weingast , Barry R., Wittman, Donald, 852-68. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Fearon, James D., Laitin, David D.. 1996. “Explaining Inter-Ethnic Cooperation.” American Political Science Review 90 (4): 715-35. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Gates, Scott . 2002. “Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1): 111-30. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, Strand, Håvard. 2002. “Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39 (5): 615-37. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Kristian, Weidman, Nils B.. 2012. “Richardson in the Information Age: Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data in International Studies.” Annual Review of Social Science 2012 (15): 461-81. Google Scholar | |
|
Graham, Brown K., Langer, Arnim. 2010. “Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: A Critical Review and Research Agenda.” Conflict, Security & Development 10 (1): 27-55. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Guevara, Che . 1961. Guerrilla Warfare. New York: Monthly Review Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Hegre, Håvard, Østby, Gudrun, Raleigh, Clionadh. 2009. “Poverty and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 598-623. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Horowitz, Donald . 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Hultman, Lisa . 2009. “The Power to Hurt in Civil War: The Strategic Aim of RENAMO Violence.” Journal of Southern African Studies 35 (4): 821-34. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
| Human Rights Watch (HRW) 2003. “Everyday Victims: Civilians in the Burundian War.” , Human Rights Watch Report, vol. 15, no. 20(A) Human Rights Watch, New York. Google Scholar | |
| Human Rights Watch (HRW) 2004. “Darfur in Flames: Atrocities in Western Sudan”. Human Rights Watch Report, vol. 16, no. 5(A) Human Rights Watch, New York. Google Scholar | |
| Human Rights Watch (HRW) . “Under Siege. Indiscriminate Bombing and Abuses in Sudan Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile States.” Human Rights Watch Report, December 2012. Accessed May 22, 2013. http://www.refworld.org/docid/50d02aa02.html. Google Scholar | |
|
Humphreys, Macartan, Weinstein, Jeremy. 2006. “Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War: Determinants of the Strategies of Warring Factions.” American Political Science Review 100 (3): 429-47. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Jaeger, David, Klor, Esteban, Miaari, Sami, Paserman, Daniele. 2012. “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada.” Journal of Public Economics 96 (3-4): 354-68. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Kaldor, Mary . 2001. New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Cambridge, UK: Polity. Google Scholar | |
|
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2001. “‘New’ and ‘Old’ Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction?” World Politics 54 (1): 99-118. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Kalyvas, Stahtis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2008. “Ethnic Defection in Civil War.” Comparative Political Studies 41 (8): 1043-68. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Kalyvas, Stathis N., Kocher, Matthew A.. 2007. “Ethnic Cleavages and Irregular War: Iraq and Vietnam.” Politics & Society 35 (2): 183-223. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Kalyvas, Stathis N., Kocher, Matthew A.. 2009. “The Dynamics of Violence in Vietnam: An Analysis of the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES).” Journal of Peace Research 46 (3): 335-55. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Kaufman, Stuart J. 2006. “Symbolic Politics or Rational Choice? Testing Theories of Extreme Ethnic Violence.” International Security 30 (4): 45-86. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Kaufmann, Chaim . 1996. “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars.” International Security 20 (4): 136-75. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Kim, Dongsuk . 2010. “What Makes State Leaders Brutal? Examining Grievances and Mass Killing during Civil War.” Civil Wars 12 (3): 237-60. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Kocher, Matthew Adam, Pepinsky, Thomas B., Kalyvas, Stathis N.. 2011. “Aerial Bombing and Counterinsurgency in the Vietnam War.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 201-18. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Lacina, Bethany . 2006. “Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2): 276-89. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Long, Scott J. 1997. Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Google Scholar | |
|
Lyall, Jason . 2009. “Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (3): 331-62. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Lyall, Jason . 2010. “Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War.” American Political Science Review 104 (1): 1-20. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Mason, David T. 1996. “Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and the Rational Peasant.” Public Choice 86 (1-2): 63-83. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Melander, Erik . 2009. “The Geography of Fear: Regional Ethnic Diversity, the Security Dilemma and Ethnic War.” European Journal of International Relations 15 (1): 95-124. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Mkandawire, Thandika . 2002. “The Terrible Death Toll of Post-Colonial ‘Rebel Movements’ in Africa: Towards an Explanation of the Violence against the Peasantry.” Journal of Modern African Studies 40 (2): 181-215. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Mueller, John . 2000. “The Banality of ‘Ethnic War.’” International Security 25 (1): 42-70. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Nordhaus, William D. 2006. “Geography and Macroeconomics: New Data and New Findings.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (10): 3510-17. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Petersen, Roger D. 2001. Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Petersen, Roger D. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Posen, Barry R. 1993. “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict.” In Ethnic Conflict and International Security, edited by Brown, Michael E. , 102-24. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Prunier, Gérard. 1995. The Rwanda Crisis: History of a Genocide. New York, NY: Columbia University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Querido, Chyanda M. 2009. “State-Sponsored Mass Killing in African Wars—Greed or Grievance?” International Advances in Economic Research 15 (3): 351-61. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Raleigh, Clionadh . 2012. “Violence against Civilians: A Disaggregated Analysis.” International Interaction 38 (4): 462-81. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Raleigh, Clionadh, Hegre, Håvard. 2009. “Population Size, Concentration and Civil War.” Political Geography 28 (4): 224-38. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Scarritt, James, McMillan, Susan. 1995 “Protest and Rebellion in Africa: Explaining Conflicts between Minorities and the State in the 1980s.” Comparative Political Studies 28 (3): 323-49. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Schneider, Gerald, Bussmann, Margit, Ruhe, Constantin. 2012. “The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in the Bosnian Civil War.” International Interactions 38 (4): 443-61. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Slim, Hugo . 2007. Killing Civilians: Method, Madness and Morality in War. London: Hurst & Company. Google Scholar | |
|
Steele, Abbey . 2009. “Seeking Safety: Avoiding Displacement and Choosing Destinations in Civil Wars.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (3): 419-30. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Sullivan, Christopher M. 2012. “Blood in the Village: A Local-Level Investigation of State Massacres.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 29 (4): 373-96. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Sundberg Ralph, Erik Melander 2013. “Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 50 (4). Google Scholar | ISI | |
|
Sundberg, Ralph, Lindgren, Mathilda, Padskocimaite, Ausra. 2010. “UCDP GED Codebook Version 1.0-2011.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. Accessed August 2012. http://www.ucdp.uu.se/ged/data.php. Google Scholar | |
|
Toft, Monica Duffy . 2002. “Indivisible Territory, Geographic Concentration, and Ethnic War.” Security Studies 12 (2): 82-119. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Tollefsen, Andreas F . 2012. “PRIO-GRID Codebook.” Accessed August 2012. http://www.prio.no/upload/cscw/PRIO-GRID/PRIO-GRID_codebook_v1_01.pdf. Google Scholar | |
|
Tollefsen, Andreas F., Strand, Håvard, Buhaug, Halvard. 2012. “PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure.” Journal of Peace Research 49 (2): 363–74. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, King, Gary. 2003 CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.1. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University. Google Scholar | |
|
Tse-tung, Mao . 2000. On Guerrilla Warfare. Translated by Samuel B. Griffith II. Chicago: University of Illinois Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, Balch-Lindsay, Dylan. 2004. “Draining the Sea: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare.” International Organization 58 (2): 375-407. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, Croco, Sarah. 2006. “Covenants without the Sword: International Law and the Protection of Civilians in Times of War.” World Politics 58 (April): 339-77. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Weidmann, Nils B. 2009. “Geography as Motivation and Opportunity: Group Concentration and Ethnic Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 526-43. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Weidmann, Nils B. 2011. “Violence ‘from Above’ or ‘from Below’? The Role of Ethnicity in Bosnia’s Civil War.” Journal of Politics 73 (4): 1-13. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Weinstein, Jeremy M. 2007. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Wood, Elisabeth . 2003. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Wood, Reed M. 2010. “Rebel Capability and Strategic Violence against Civilians.” Journal of Peace Research 47 (5): 601-14. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Wucherpfenning, Julian, Metternich, Nils W., Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2012. “Ethnicity, the State and the Duration of Civil War.” World Politics 64 (1): 79-115. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Wucherpfennig, Julian, Weidmann, Nils B., Girardin, Luc, Wimmer, Andreas, Cederman, Lars-Erik. 2011. “Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (5): 423-37. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI |
