Abstract
What explains the effect of external intervention on the duration of civil war? The literature on intervention has made some progress in addressing this question, but it has been hindered by an assumption that states intervene in civil wars either to help one side win or to facilitate negotiations. Often, however, external states become involved in civil war to pursue an agenda which is separate from the goals of the internal combatants. When states intervene in this fashion, they make wars more difficult to resolve for two reasons. First, doing so introduces another actor that must approve any settlement to end the war. Second, external states generally have less incentive to negotiate than internal actors because they bear lower costs of fighting and they can anticipate gaining less benefit from negotiation than domestic insurgents. Through Cox regressions using data on the goals of all interventions in civil wars since World War II, this article shows that when states intervene with an independent agenda, they make wars substantially longer. The effect of independent interventions is much larger than that of external interventions generally, suggesting that the established finding that external interventions prolong civil war is driven by a subset of cases where states have intervened in conflicts to pursue independent goals.
|
Balch-Lindsay, Dylan & Andrew Enterline ( 2000) Killing time: The world politics of civil war duration, 1820-1992. International Studies Quarterly 44(4): 615-642. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet & Bradford S Jones ( 2004) Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Buhaug, Halvard ; Scott Gates & Paivi Lujala ( 2002) Lootable natural resources and the duration of armed civil conflict, 1946-2001. Paper presented at the Peace Science Society, 1-3 November, Tucson, AZ. Google Scholar | |
|
Collier, Paul ; Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom ( 2004) On the duration of civil war. Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 253-273. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Connell, Dan & Frank Smyth ( 1998) Africa’s new bloc. Foreign Affairs 77(3): 80-94. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Cox, Gary & Mathew McCubbins ( 2001) The institutional determinants of economic policy outcomes . In: Stephan Haggard & Mathew McCubbins (eds) Presidents, Parliaments, and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 21-63. Google Scholar | |
|
Crocker, Chester ( 1999) Peacemaking in Southern Africa: The Namibia-Angola settlement of 1988. In: Chester Crocker , Fen Osler Hampson & Pamela Aall (eds) Herding Cats: Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 207-244. Google Scholar | |
|
Cunningham, David E ( 2006) Veto players and civil war duration. American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 875-892. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Cunningham, David E ; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Idean Salehyan ( 2009) It takes two: A dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcome. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4): 570-597. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Doyle, Michael & Nicholas Sambanis ( 2000) International peace-building: A theoretical and quantitative analysis. American Political Science Review 94(4): 779-801. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Nicholas Sambanis ( 2000) External interventions and the duration of civil wars . Paper presented at the workshop on the Economics of Civil Violence, 18-19 March, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ. Google Scholar | |
|
Eriksson, Mikael & Peter Wallensteen ( 2004) Armed conflict, 1989- 2003. Journal of Peace Research 41(5): 625-636. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Fearon, James D ( 2003) Ethnic and cultural diversity by country. Journal of Economic Growth 8(2): 195-222. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Filson, Darren & Suzanne Werner ( 2002) A bargaining model of war and peace: Anticipating the onset, duration, and outcome of war. American Journal of Political Science 46(4): 819-838. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Gates, Scott & Håvard Strand ( 2004) Modeling the duration of civil wars: Measurement and estimation issues. Paper presented at the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL. Google Scholar | |
|
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede ( 2002) Expanded trade and GDP data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(5): 712-724. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede ( 2007) Transnational dimensions of civil war. Journal of Peace Research 44(3): 293-309. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Kyle Beardsley ( 2004) Nosy neighbors: Third-party actors in Central American conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(3): 379-402. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Michael D Ward ( 2006) Diffusion and the international context of democratization . International Organization 60(4): 911-933. Google Scholar | |
|
Gleditsch, Nils Petter ; Peter Wallensteen , Mikael Eriksson , Margareta Sollenberg & Håvard Strand ( 2002) Armed conflict 1946- 2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615-637. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Hartzell, Caroline & Matthew Hoddie ( 2007) Crafting Peace: Power Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Lacina, Bethany & Nils Petter Gleditsch ( 2005) Monitoring trends in global combat: A new dataset of battle deaths. European Journal of Population 21(2-3): 145-166. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Lin, D.Y. & L.J. Wei ( 1989) Robust inference for the Cox proportional hazards model . Journal of the American Statistical Association 84(408): 1074-1078. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Regan, Patrick ( 2002) Third party interventions and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1): 55-73. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Regan, Patrick & Aysegul Aydin ( 2006) Diplomacy and other forms of intervention in civil wars . Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(5): 736-756. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Salehyan, Idean ( 2007) Transnational rebels: Neighboring states as sanctuary for rebel groups. World Politics 59(2): 217-242. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Salehyan, Idean & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch ( 2006) Refugees and the spread of civil war. International Organization 60(2): 335-366. Google Scholar | ISI | |
|
Sambanis, Nicholas ( 2004) What is a civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 814-858. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Slantchev, Branislav ( 2003) The principle of convergence in wartime negotiations. American Political Science Review 97(4): 621-632. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Smith, Alastair & Allan Stam ( 2004) Bargaining and the nature of war. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 783-813. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Tsebelis, George ( 2002) Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Wagner, R Harrison ( 2000) Bargaining and war. American Journal of Political Science 44(3): 469-484. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Walter, Barbara F ( 2002) Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Google Scholar |
