![[PDF]](/pb-assets/Icons/adobe-pdf-icon-1498649896243.png){kind=icon}
Abstract
The issue of climate change and security has received much attention in recent years. Still, the results from research on this topic are mixed and the academic community appears to be far from a consensus on how climate change is likely to affect stability and conflict risk in affected countries. This study focuses on how climate-related natural disasters such as storms, floods, and droughts have affected the risk of civil war in the past. The frequency of such disasters has risen sharply over the last decades, and the increase is expected to continue due to both climate change and demographic changes. Using multivariate methods, this study employs a global sample covering 1950 to the present in order to test whether adding climate-related natural disasters to a well-specified model on civil conflict can increase its explanatory power. The results indicate that this is the case, but that the relation is opposite to common perceptions: Countries that are affected by climate-related natural disasters face a lower risk of civil war. One worrying facet of the claims that environmental factors cause conflict is that they may contribute to directing attention away from more important conflict-promoting factors, such as poor governance and poverty. There is a serious risk of misguided policy to prevent civil conflict if the assumption that disasters have a significant effect on war is allowed to overshadow more important causes.
References
|
Banks, Arthur S (2009) Cross-national time-series data archive. Databanks International (http://www.databanksinternational.com). Google Scholar | |
|
Birkmann, Jörn (2006) Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and definitions. In: Birkmann, Jörn (ed.) Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 9–54. Google Scholar | |
|
Brancati, Dawn (2007) Political aftershocks: The impact of earthquakes on intrastate conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(5): 715–743. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Buhaug, Halvard, Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Theisen, Ole Magnus (2010) Implications of climate change for armed conflict. In: Norton, Andy, Cameron, Edward, Mearns, Peter (eds) People, Vulnerability and Climate: Understanding the Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank, 75–101. Google Scholar | |
|
Burke, Marshall B, Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker, Dykema, John A, Lobell, David B (2009) Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 20670–20674. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Correlates of War Project (2008) State system membership list, v2008.1 (http://correlatesofwar.org). Google Scholar | |
|
CRED (2007) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels: Université Catholique de Louvain. Google Scholar | |
|
Disaster research group (1961) Field studies of disaster behavior: An inventory. In Disaster Study Number 14. Washington, DC: Disaster Research Group, National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council. Google Scholar | |
|
Dixon, Jeffrey (2009) What causes civil wars? Integrating quantitative research findings. International Studies Review 11(4): 707–735. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Drury, Cooper A, Olson, Richard Stuart (1998) Disasters and political unrest: An empirical investigation. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 6(3): 153–161. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Durkheim, Emile (1952 [1897]) Suicide: A Study in Sociology. Spaulding, John A, Simpson, George. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul. Google Scholar | |
|
Enia, Jason S (2008) Peace in its wake? The 2004 tsunami and internal conflict in Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Journal of Public and International Affairs 19(1): 7–27. Google Scholar | |
|
Fearon, James D (2004) Why do some civil wars last so much longer than others? Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 275–301. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Fearon, James D, Laitin, David D (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review 97(1): 75–90. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Fritz, Charles E (1961) Disaster. In: Merton, Robert K, Nisbet, Robert A (eds) Contemporary Social Problems: An Introduction to the Sociology of Deviant Behavior and Social Disorganization. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 651–694. Google Scholar | |
|
Fritz, Charles E (1996) Disasters and mental health: Therapeutic principles drawn from disaster studies. Historical and Comparative Disaster Series 10. University of Delaware Disaster Research Center (http://dspace.udel.edu:8080/dspace/handle/19716/1325, accessed 24 May 2010). Google Scholar | |
|
Gleditsch, Nils Petter (1998) Armed conflict and the environment: A critique of the literature. Journal of Peace Research 35(3): 381–400. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, Strand, Håvard (2002) Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615–637. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Goldstone, Jack A (2001) Demography, environment, and security. In: Weiner, Myron, Russel, Sharon Stanton (eds) Demography and National Security. New York: Berghahn, 38–61. Google Scholar | |
|
Hegre, Håvard, Sambanis, Nicholas (2006) Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 508–535. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Hegre, Håvard, Ellingsen, Tanja, Gates, Scott, Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2001) Toward a democratic civil peace? Democracy, political change, and civil war, 1816–1992. American Political Science Review 95(1): 33–48. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, Aten, Bettina (2009) Penn World Table Version 6.3. University of Pennsylvania: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices (http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/). Google Scholar | |
|
Homer-Dixon, Thomas (1999) Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group 2 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Canziani, OF, Parry, ML, Palutikof, JP, van der Linden, PJ, Hanson, CE (eds). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt, KB, Tignor, M, Miller, HL. (eds) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Knutson, Thomas R, McBride, John L, Chan, Johnny, Emanuel, Kerry, Holland, Greg, Landsea, Chris, Held, Isaac, Kossin, James P, Srivastava, AK, Sugi, Masato (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience 3(3): 157–163. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Landsea, Christopher W, Harper, Bruce A, Hoarau, Karl, Knaff, John A (2006) Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313: 452–454. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Marshall, Monty G, Jaggers, Keith (2009) Polity IV Project. Center for Global Policy, School of Public Policy, George Mason University and Center for Systemic Peace (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm). Google Scholar | |
|
Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker, Sergenti, Ernest (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. Journal of Political Economy 112(4): 725–753. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Nel, Philip, Righarts, Marjolein (2008) Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict. International Studies Quarterly 52(1): 159–185. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Olson, Richard Stuart, Gawronski, Vincent T (2010) From disaster event to political crisis: A 5C+A framework for analysis. International Studies Perspectives 11(3): 205–221. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Prince, Samuel Henry (1920) Catastrophe and social change: Based upon a sociological study of the Halifax Disaster. PhD thesis. New York: Faculty of Political Science, Columbia University (http://www.archive.org/details/catastrophesocia00prinuoft, accessed 24 May 2010). Google Scholar | |
|
Quarantelli, Enrico L, Dynes, Russell R (1976) Community conflict: Its absence and its presence in natural disasters. Mass Emergencies 1: 139–152. Google Scholar | |
|
Raleigh, Clionadh, Hegre, Håvard (2009) Population size, concentration, and civil war: A geographically disaggregated analysis. Political Geography 28(4): 224–238. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Strand, Håvard (2006) Onset of armed conflict: A new list for the period 1946–2004, with applications. Unpublished manuscript (htpp://www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/Onset-and-Duration-of-Intrastate-Conflict/Onset-Data/). Google Scholar | |
|
Tiedemann, H (1984) Quantification of factors contributing to earthquake damage in buildings. Engineering Geology 20(1–2): 169–179. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
US Strategic Bombing Survey (1947a) The Effects of Strategic Bombing on German Morale. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office (http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000815693, accessed 24 May 2010). Google Scholar | |
|
US Strategic Bombing Survey (1947b) The Effects of Strategic Bombing on Japanese Morale. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office (http://www.archive.org/details/effectsofstrateg00unit, accessed 24 May 2010). Google Scholar | |
|
van Aalst, Maarten K (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters 30(1): 5–18. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Wisner, Ben, Blaikie, Piers, Cannon, Terry, Davis, Ian (2004) At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. 2nd edn. London: Routledge. Google Scholar | |
|
World Bank (2007) World Development Indicators 2007. Washington, DC: World Bank. Google Scholar | Crossref |
