Hedging Against Oil Dependency: New Perspectives on China’s Energy Security Policy
Abstract
Analysts debate if China will address its increasing reliance on overseas oil supplies and associated vulnerabilities through strategic steps that could lead to conflict or through accommodating market mechanisms. This article utilises on traditional ‘market’ and ‘strategic’ approaches, but adds to this analysis the concept of hedging, and links hedging to risk management. It is argued that such an alternative approach provides a better explanation and a more comprehensive understanding of China’s energy security behaviour. By drawing on hedging and risk management, new perspectives on China’s strategies to access energy resources in Sudan and Iran, and the importance of a Chinese state-owned tanker fleet in China’s energy security policy are presented. Hedging strategies also incorporate more scope for limiting and managing risk than traditional strategies of diversification and a comprehensive approach that loosely mixes strategic and market approaches.
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1.
1 A shorter version of this paper has been presented at the following conferences: ‘Energy Security in Asia’, Beijing 21—22 May 2009, available at: www.mil.no/felles/ifs/start/arrangementer_ifs/sem_ 2007_inter/article.jhtml?articleID=184213 (accessed 11 June 2009); ‘Japanese and Asian Creativity in Renewable Energy and Energy Security’, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7 November 2008; and ‘The Energy Supply of China’, Network for Oil and Gas, Stockholm, 30 October 2008. I am grateful for the valuable comments I received at these meetings. I would also like to thank Johannes Rø, Robert Ross, Sven Holtsmark, Stein Tønnesson, Liv Nuland and Tor Vidar Mykland for feedback and suggestions. The Norwegian Ministry of Defence has generously provided economic funding for my research. The opinions expressed, however, are solely my own.
2.
2 International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2007. China and India Insights (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2007), pp. 44—5.
3.
3 Han Wenke, Energy Research Institute (ERI), National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), presentation at the ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference in Beijing.
4.
4 Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, China’s National Defence in 2006 (Beijing: Foreign Language Press, 2006), p. 4, and Hu Jintao, ‘G8 Written Statement’, St Petersburg, 17 July 2006, available at: www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/chinainstitute/nav03.cfm?n av03=48114&nav02=43884&nav01=43092 (accessed 14 July 2008). See also David Zweig and Bi Jinhai, ‘China’s Global Hunt for Energy’, Foreign Affairs, 84(5), 2005, pp. 25—38; Erica S. Downs, ‘China’, in Energy Security Series, Brookings Foreign Policy Studies (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, December 2006), p. 14; Xu Yi-Chong, ‘China’s Energy Security’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 60(2), 2006, pp. 265—86, at p. 268; Yang Yi, ‘Engagement, Caution’, China Security, 3(4), 2007, pp. 29—39; Zha Daojiong and Hu Weixing, ‘Promoting Energy Partnership in Beijing and Washington’, Washington Quarterly, 30(4), 2007, pp. 105—15, at p. 107; and Amy Myers Jaffe and Steven W. Lewis, ‘Beijing’s Oil Diplomacy’, Survival 44(1), 2002, pp. 115—34.
5.
5 Neither China’s survival nor its defence capabilities relies heavily on imported oil, which accounts for roughly 10 per cent of China’s energy mix, which is about 69 per cent coal, 22 per cent oil, 5 per cent hydro, 3 per cent gas and 1 per cent nuclear.
6.
6 Peter C. Fusaro (ed.), Energy Risk Management, Hedging Strategies and Instruments for the International Energy Markets (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998); Michael Wesley (ed.), Energy Security in Asia (London: Routledge, 2007); and Erica S. Downs, China’s Energy Security (Ann Arbor, MI: UMI ProQuest, 2004), pp. 49, 89.
7.
7 Philip Andrews-Speed, ‘China’s Energy Policy and its Contribution to International Stability. Facing China’s Rise: Guidelines for an EU Paper’, Chaillot Paper no. 94, December 2006, p. 73; and Philip Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liao and Roland Dannreuther, ‘The Strategic Implications of China’s Energy Needs’, Adelphi Paper 346 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 19.
8.
8 François Godement, François Nicolas and Taizp Yakushiji, ‘An Overview of Options and Challenges’, in Godement et al. (eds), Asia and Europe — Cooperating for Energy Security, A CAEC Task Force Report,(Paris: Institute Français des Relations Internationals, 2004), pp. 9—28, at p. 20; and Christian Constantin, ‘Understanding China’s Energy Security’, World Political Science Review, 3(3), 2007, pp. 1—30, at p. 5.
9.
9 Ziad Haider, ‘Oil Fuels Beijing’s New Power Game’, YaleGlobal, 11 March 2005. For an in-depth analysis on the issue of relative gains in international politics, see Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House, 1979), and Joseph M. Grieco, Cooperation among Nations: Europe, America, and Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990).
10.
10 Cherie Canning, ‘Pursuit of the Pariah: Iran, Sudan and Myanmar in China’s Energy Security Strategy’, Security Challenges, 3(1), 2007, pp. 47—63, at p. 51; Philip Andrews-Speed, ‘China’s Energy Policy and its Contribution to International Stability’, in Marcin Zaborowski, ‘Facing China’s Rise: Guidelines for an EU Strategy’, Chaillot Paper no. 94, December 2006, pp. 71—81, at p. 73; Flynt Levrett, ‘The Geopolitics of Oil and America’s International Standing’, statement before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, US Senate, 10 January 2007.
11.
11 Statements by former US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick and the State Department’s former chief China official Randall Schriver in September 2005. See Reuters online ‘US Warns China on Iran Oil’, 7 September 2005, available at: www.financialexpress.com/old/latest_full_story. php?content_id=101772 (accessed 26 August 2008). See also Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) ‘China—US Energy Policies: A Choice of Cooperation or Collision’, Council on Foreign Relations, 30 November 2005, and Michael T. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2008).
12.
12 Gal Luft, ‘U.S., China Are on a Collision Course over Oil’, Los Angeles Times, 2 February 2004. p. B11; Gal Luft, ‘Fuelling the Dragon: China’s Race into the Oil Market’, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, available at: www.iags.org/china.htm (accessed 14 July 2008); and Peter Hatemi and Andrew Wedeman, ‘Oil and Conflict in Sino-American Relations’, China Security, 3(3), 2007, pp. 95—118, at p. 110.
13.
13 Leading Chinese energy security experts emphasised the importance of market mechanisms at the ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference. See weblink above. After years of indecision, Chinese companies began building for phase 1 strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) sites in 2004, and in 2006 China commenced filling the first site at Zhenhai (completed in 2007). Three other SPR reserves are currently being constructed and filled: Huangdao, Delian and Zhoushan, which will provide China with 37 days of net imports. The target in phase 2 is 90 days of net imports, but it remains unknown when China will reach this goal. See Gabriel Collins, ‘China Fills First SPR Site, Faces Oil, Pipeline Issues’, Oil and Gas Journal, 20 August 2007, and Tatsuo Masuda, at the ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference.
14.
14 Hu Jintao, ‘G8 Written Statement’; Hu Jintao, ‘An Open Mind for Win—Win Cooperation’, speech at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO summit, Busan, Republic of Korea, 17 November 2005; Angie Austin, Energy and Power in China: Domestic Regulation and Foreign Policy (London: Foreign Policy Centre, n.d.); and Eurasia Group, ‘China’s Overseas Investment in Oil and Gas Production’, report for the US—China Economic and Security Review Commission, 16 October 2006.
15.
15 US Department of Energy (DOE), ‘Energy Policy Act 2005 Section 1837: National Security Review of International Energy Requirements’, February 2006, p. 3.
16.
16 See Gary Dirks, ‘China’s Energy: Challenges and Implications’, speech at the German Council of Foreign Policy, Berlin, 13 September 2007. However, Trevor Houser and Roy Levy argue that total overseas oil production by Chinese companies totalled 620,000 b/d in 2007, only half of which was shipped back to China, accounting for less than 10 per cent of the 3.25 mb/d China imported. Houser and Levy, ‘Energy Security and China’s UN Diplomacy’, China Security, 4(3), 2008, pp. 63—73, at p. 70.
17.
17 Mikkal E. Herberg, statement before the US—China Economic and Security Review Commission, hearing on ‘China’s Energy Consumption and Opportunities for US—China Cooperation to Address the Effects of China’s Energy Use’, 14—15 June 2007.
18.
18 Uwe Nerlich, ‘Energy Security or a New Globalization of Conflicts? Oil and Gas in Evolving New Power Structures’, Strategic Insight, 7(1), 2008, available at: www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2008/ Feb/nerlichFeb08.asp (accessed 26 August 2008).
19.
19 Kenneth Lieberthal and Mikkal Herberg, ‘China’s Search for Energy Security: Implications for U.S. Policy’, NBR Analysis 17(1) (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2006).
20.
20 Henry Lee and Dan A. Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil: China’s Oil Initiatives in the Middle East’, BCSIA Discussion Paper (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, January 2007), p. 8. See also Cindy Hurst, ‘China’s Oil Rush in Africa’, IAGS Energy Security, July 2006; Esther Pan, ‘China, Africa, and Oil’, Council on Foreign Relations, Backgrounder, 26 January 2007; and Michael Klare and Daniel Volman, ‘The African “Oil Rush” and US National Security’, Third World Quarterly, 27(4), pp. 609—28, at p. 622.
21.
21 International Crisis Group (ICG), ‘ China’s Thirst for Oil’, Asia Report no. 153, 9 June 2008; Bernard Cole, Sea Lines and Pipe Lines: Energy Security in Asia (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008); Bo Kong, ‘An Anatomy of China’s Energy Insecurity and its Strategies’, Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security, December 2005; Zha Daojiong, ‘Energy Interdependence’, China Security, 2(2), 2006, pp. 2—16; Linda Jakobson and Zha Daojiong, ‘China and the Worldwide Search for Oil Security’, Asia-Pacific Review, 13(2), 2006, pp. 60—73; James Tang, With the Grain or Against the Grain? Energy Security and Chinese Foreign Policy in the Hu Jintao Era (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2006); Xuecheng Liu, ‘China’s Energy Security and its Grand Strategy’, Policy Analysis Brief, Stanley Foundation, September 2006; and Peter Cornelius and Jonathan Story, ‘China and Global Energy Markets’, Orbis, 51(1), 2007, pp. 5—20.
22.
22 Lieberthal and Herberg, ‘China’s Search for Energy Security’; Wesley, Energy Security; Constantin, ‘Understanding China’s Energy Security’; Downs, China’s Energy Security; and Andrews-Speed et al., ‘The Strategic Implications of China’s Energy Needs’.
23.
23 John J. Tkacik, ‘Panda Hedging: Pentagon Urges New Strategy for China’, web memo no. 1093, published by the Heritage Foundation, 24 May 2006, available at: www.policyarchive.org/bitstream/ handle/10207/8520/wm_1093.pdf?sequence=1 (accessed 16 September 2009); Robert Sutter, ‘Why Rising China Can’t Dominate Asia’, Commentary, Glocom Platform, 11 September 2006; David Shambaugh, ‘Asia in Transition: The Evolving Regional Order’, Current History, 2006, pp. 153—60; Donald G. Gross, ‘Transforming the U.S. Relationship with China’, Global Asia, 2(1), 2007; Hugh White, ‘Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable’, Survival, 50(8), 2008, pp. 85—104, at p. 99; Carin Zissis, ‘Crafting a U.S. Policy on Asia’, Council on Foreign Relations, 10 April 2007; Sharman Katz and David Stewart, ‘Hedging China with FTAs’, Asia Times, 1 October 2005; and Graeme Dobell, ‘Correspondent Report — US Details its Hedging Policy towards China’, ABS Online, 1 April 2007, available at: www.abc.net.au/correspondents/content/2007/s1886188.htm (accessed 16 September 2009).
24.
24 Rosemary Foot, ‘Chinese Strategies in a US-Hegemonic Global Order: Accommodating and Hedging’, International Affairs, 82(1), 2006, pp. 77—94; Evelyn Goh, ‘Meeting the China Challenge: The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies’, in Policy Studies 16 (Washington, DC: East-West Centre, 2005), pp. 1—57; Robert J. Art, ‘Europe Hedges its Security Bets’, in T. V. Paul, James J. Wirtz and Michel Fortman (eds), Balance of Power, Theory and Practice in the 21st Century (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004), pp. 179—213; Evan S. Medeiros, ‘Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability’, Washington Quarterly, 29(1), 2005—6, pp. 145—67; and ystein Tunsjø, US Taiwan Policy: Constructing the Triangle (London: Routledge, 2008), pp. 109—19.
25.
25 Although it will be interesting to see if the Obama administration will also emphasise hedging in its China policy and strategy papers, the term occurs frequently in documents from the Bush administration: US Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy (Washington, DC, June 2008); US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington, DC, 6 February 2006); White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC, March 2006); and US Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (Washington, DC, 2007), executive summary.
26.
26 Goh, ‘Meeting the China Challenge’, and Evelyn Goh, ‘Understanding “Hedging” in Asia-Pacific Security’, Pacific Forum CSIS, 31 August 2006.
27.
27 Goh, ‘Meeting the China Challenge’, pp. 2—3.
28.
28 Richard J. Samuels, Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007), p. 8.
29.
29 I am very grateful for the comments by Johannes Rø on this section.
30.
30 Downs, China’s Energy Security, pp. 49, 89.
31.
31 Downs, ‘The Chinese Energy Security Debate’, China Quarterly, 177, 2004, pp. 21—41, at p. 41.
32.
32 Michael Wesley, ‘The Geopolitics of Energy in Asia’, in Wesley, Energy Security, pp. 1—12, at pp. 1, 8; and William Tow, ‘Strategic Dimensions of Energy Competition in Asia’, in Wesley, Energy Security, pp. 161—73, at p. 165.
33.
33 Jon Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 26.
34.
34 Zhang Wenmu, ‘Sea Power and China’s Strategic Choices’, China Security, 3, 2006, pp. 17—31.
35.
35 Richard A. Brealey and Stewart C. Myers, Financing and Risk Management (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003), pp. 319—25.
36.
36 Robert D. Kaplan, ‘Center Stage for the 21st Century, Power Plays in the Indian Ocean’, Foreign Affairs, 88(2), 2009, pp. 16—32.
37.
37 Chris Devonshire-Ellis, ‘China’s String of Pearls Strategy’, China Briefing, 18 March 2009, available at: www.china-briefing.com/news/2009/03/18/china%E2%80%99s-string-of-pearls-strategy.html (accessed 9 June 2009). On overseas bases, see China’s National Defence White Paper issued by the Information Office of the State Council.
38.
38 Ken Booth and Nicholas J. Wheeler, The Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation and Trust in World Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
39.
39 Different views and approaches also shaped discussion among leading Chinese, Western and Asian experts during the ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference.
40.
40 Zha Daojiong is a leading representative of a market or interdependent view, while Zhang Wenmu argues that China’s increasing dependence on oil imports is a strategic threat. Several articles in China Security, Summer 2006, explore this debate.
41.
41 Zha Daojiong, ‘Energy Interdependence’, p, 8.
42.
42 Daniel Yergin, ‘Ensuring Energy Security’, Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 2006, pp. 69—82.
43.
43 See Tunsjø, US Taiwan Policy, pp. 107—19, for the linkage between hedging and risk management in explaining US China policy.
44.
44 Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, trans. Mark Ritter (Cambridge: Polity, 1992); Anthony Giddens, Modernity and Self-identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age (Cambridge: Polity, 1991); and Michael Foucault, ‘Governmentality’, in James D. Faubion (ed.), Essential Works of Michaels Foucault 1954—1984, vol. III: Power (New York: New Press, 2000), pp. 201—22.
45.
45 Christopher Coker, War in an Age of Risk (Cambridge: Polity, 2009); Yee-Kuang Heng, War as Risk Management: Strategy and Conflict in an Age of Globalised Risks (London: Routledge, 2006); Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, The Risk Society at War: Technology and Strategy in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006); Louise Amoore and Mareke de Goede (eds), Risk and the War on Terror (London: Routledge 2008); and Tunsjø, US Taiwan Policy, pp. 109—19.
46.
46 Heng, War as Risk Management, p. 10.
47.
47 Mathias Albert, ‘From Defending Borders towards Managing Geopolitical Risks? Security in a Globalized World’, Geopolitics, 5(1), 2001, pp. 57—80, at p. 64.
48.
48 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, p. 161.
49.
49 It is interesting to note that in fiscal year 2004 the US military, fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and sustaining normal operations as well, used approximately 395,000 b/d of oil. See Gabriel B. Collins and William S. Murray, ‘No Oil for the Lamps of China?’ Naval War College Review, 61(2), 2008, pp. 79—95, at p. 81. China’s current domestic oil production stands at roughly 3.8 mb/d.
50.
50 See Collins and Murray, ‘No Oil’, for an excellent discussion of the feasibility of a potential blockade of Chinese oil supplies.
51.
51 Keun-Wook Paik, Valerie Marcel, Glada Lahn, John V. Mitchell and Erkin Adylov, ‘Trends in Asian NOC Investments Abroad’, Working Background Paper (Chatham House, March 2007); and Mitchell and Lahn, ‘Oil for Asia’, Briefing Paper (Chatham House, March 2007).
52.
52 Jiang Xinmin, ERI, NDRC, presentation at the ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference and US Energy Information Administration (EIA), available at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html (accessed 17 September 2009).
53.
53 Jakobson and Zha, ‘China and the Worldwide Search’.
54.
54 ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’, p. 23.
55.
55 Lee and Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil’, p. 24.
56.
56 Ian Taylor, ‘China’s Oil Diplomacy in Africa’, International Affairs, 82(5), 2006, pp. 937—59, at p. 942; and William Engdahl, ‘Darfur? It’s the Oil, Stupid’, Geopolitics-Geoeconomics, 20 May 2007.
57.
57 Downs, China’s Energy Security, pp. 37—41.
58.
58 Human Rights Watch, ‘China’s Involvement in Sudan: Arms and Oil’, November 2003; Ian Taylor, ‘Beijing’s Arms and Oil Interests in Africa’, China Brief, 5(21), 13 October 2005; Chris Alden, China in Africa (London: Zed Books 2007); and Opinion/Leaders, ‘The New Colonialists, China’s Hunger for Natural Resources is Causing More Problems at Home than Abroad’, The Economist, 13 March 2008.
59.
59 Eurasia Group, ‘China’s Overseas Investments’, p. 21.
60.
60 Chin-Hao Huang, ‘China’s Evolving Perspective on Darfur: Significance and Policy Implications’, PacNet Newsletter 40, 25 July 2008; and ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’.
61.
61 Interview with Professor Zha Daojiong, Beijing, November 2007. Although Houser and Levy support Zha’s finding from 2006, their statistics show that most of the Sudanese oil exported in 2007 was shipped back to China. Houser and Levy, ‘Energy Security’, p. 70.
62.
62 EIA webpage (see note 52). Another report by the DOE estimates that the total equity oil secured is around 400 thousand b/d, equivalent to roughly 15 per cent of China’s total crude imports or 6 per cent of China’s current oil consumption. See DOE, ‘Energy Policy Act’, p. 28. In addition, according to Downs, oil pumped by Chinese NOCs abroad (685,000 b/d) accounts for less than 1 per cent of global production. See Erica Downs, ‘China’s Quest for Overseas Oil’, Far Eastern Economic Review, September 2007, pp. 52—6.
63.
63 Eurasia Group, ‘China’s Overseas Investments’.
64.
64 Herberg, ‘China’s Energy Consumption’.
65.
65 Downs, ‘The Chinese Energy’, pp. 35—6; and Houser and Levy, ‘Energy Security’, p. 71.
66.
66 Satu P. Limaye, ‘The United States and Energy Security in the Asia-Pacific’, in Wesley, Energy Security in Asia, pp. 15—27, at p. 19; and Downs, ‘The Chinese Energy’, p. 36
67.
67 Interview with Professor Zha. See also Downs, ‘China’s Quest’; ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’; Dirks, ‘China’s Energy’; Eurasia Group, ‘China’s Overseas Investments’; Herberg, ‘China’s Energy Consumption’; Mitchell and Lahn, ‘Oil for Asia’.
68.
68 Jakobson and Zha, ‘China and the Worldwide Search’, p. 67; and ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’.
69.
69 Houser and Levy, ‘Energy Security’.
70.
70 Erica Downs, ‘The Facts and Fiction of Sino-Africa Energy Relations’, China Security, 3(3), 2007, pp. 42—68, at p. 58.
71.
71 Huang, ‘China’s Evolving Perspective on Sudan’.
72.
72 Bates Gill, Chin-hao Huang and Stephen J. Morrison, ‘Assessing China’s Growing Influence in Africa’, China Security, 3(3), 2007, pp. 3—21, at p. 15.
73.
73 ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’, pp. 22—32; and Houser and Levy, ‘Energy Security’, p. 70.
74.
74 Lee and Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil’, p. 10.
75.
75 ICG, ‘China’s Thirst’.
76.
76 Herberg, ‘China’s Energy Consumption’, p. 126.
77.
77 Lee and Shalmon, ’Searching for Oil’, p. 24.
78.
78 Sanam Vakil, ‘Iran: Balancing East against West’, Washington Quarterly, 29(4), 2006, pp. 51—65, at p. 55; Lee and Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil’, p. 19; and ICG, ‘China’s Thirst for Oil’.
79.
79 Saira H. Basit, The Iran—Pakistan—India Pipeline Project. Fuelling Cooperation?, Oslo Files no. 4 (Oslo: Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, 2008).
80.
80 ‘China and Iran Sign Biggest Oil and Gas Deal’, China Daily, 31 October 2004, available at: www. chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004—10/31/content_387140.htm (accessed 5 January 2008).
81.
81 Lee and Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil’, p. 11.
82.
82 Lee and Shalmon, ‘Searching for Oil’, p. 21.
83.
83 United Press International, ‘Iran Takes Lead in Oil Exports to China’, 25 June 2009, available at: www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2009/06/25/Iran-takes-lead-in-oil-exports-to-China/UPI-64491245942546/ (accessed 26 July 2009).
84.
84 For an excellent review of some of this literature, see Andrew Erikson and Lyle Goldstein, ‘Gunboats for China’s New “Grand Canals”? Probing the Intersection of Beijing’s Naval and Oil Security Policies’, Naval War College Review, 62(1), 2009, pp. 43—76; and Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security Strategy: The Significance of a Chinese State-Owned Tanker Fleet’, Orbis, 51(4), 2007, pp. 665—84.
85.
85 Zhang, ‘Sea Power’.
86.
86 Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, p. 677.
87.
87 Robert Ross, ‘China’s Naval Nationalism and U.S.—China Naval Politics’, International Security, 34(2), Fall 2009, pp. 46—81.
88.
88 Malaccamax or Very Large Crude Carriers of 200,000—300,000 dwt go through the Malacca Straits. Complicating any attempts at blockade is the fact that tankers can reroute, and that Ultra Large Crude Carriers above 300,000 dwt can use the Lombok Straits, the Makassar Straits, the Sibutu Passage or the Mindoro Straits. See also Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, p. 681.
89.
89 Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, p. 680.
90.
90 Since the US-led trade embargo and blockade, 1950—71, only once has there been a tentative case of disruption of shipment to China: the Yinghe cargo ship incident of 1993. Zha Daojiong, ‘Energy Security in Asia’ conference.
91.
91 Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, pp. 673, 674 and 671.
92.
92 Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, pp. 681—2.
93.
93 Erickson and Collins, ‘Beijing’s Energy Security’, p. 683.
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