![[PDF]](/pb-assets/Icons/adobe-pdf-icon-1498649896243.png){kind=icon}
Abstract
In this paper we examine the epistemic value of highly idealized agent-based models (ABMs) of social aspects of scientific inquiry. On the one hand, we argue that taking the results of such simulations as informative of actual scientific inquiry is unwarranted, at least for the class of models proposed in recent literature. Moreover, we argue that a weaker approach, which takes these models as providing only “how-possibly” explanations, does not help to improve their epistemic value. On the other hand, we suggest that if ABMs of science underwent two types of robustness analysis, they could indeed have a clear epistemic function, namely by providing evidence for philosophical and historical hypotheses. In this sense, ABMs can obtain evidential and explanatory properties and thus be a useful tool for integrated history and philosophy of science. We illustrate our point with an example of a model—building on the work by Kevin Zollman—which we apply to a concrete historical case study.
References
|
Alexander, Jason McKenzie, Johannes, Himmelreich, Christopher, Thompson. 2015. “Epistemic Landscapes, Optimal Search, and the Division of Cognitive Labor.” Philosophy of Science 82 (3): 424-53. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Bala, Venkatesh, Goyal, Sanjeev. 1998. “Learning from Neighbours.” The Review of Economic Studies 65 (3): 595-621. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Bokulich, Alisa . 2014. “How the Tiger Bush Got Its Stripes: ‘How Possibly’ vs. ‘How Actually’ Model Explanations.” The Monist 97 (3): 321-38. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Borg, AnneMarie, Frey, Daniel, Šešelja, Dunja, Straßer, Christian. 2017a. “An Argumentative Agent-Based Model of Scientific Inquiry.” In Advances in Artificial Intelligence: From Theory to Practice: 30th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, IEA/AIE 2017, Arras, France, June 27-30, 2017, Proceedings, Part I, edited by Benferhat, Salem, Tabia, Karim, Ali, Moonis, 507-10. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Borg, AnneMarie, Frey, Daniel, Šešelja, Dunja, Straßer, Christian. 2017b. “Examining Network Effects in an Argumentative Agent-Based Model of Scientific Inquiry.” In Logic, Rationality, and Interaction: 6th International Workshop, LORI 2017, Sapporo, Japan, September 11-14, 2017, Proceedings, edited by Baltag, Alexandru, Seligman, Jeremy, Yamada, Tomoyuki, 391-406. Berlin: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-662-55665-8_27. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Borg, AnneMarie, Frey, Daniel, Dunja, Šešelja, Straßer, Christian. 2018. “Epistemic Effects of Scientific Interaction: Approaching the Question with an Argumentative Agent-Based Model.” Historical Social Research 43 (1): 285-309. Google Scholar | |
|
Chang, Hasok . 2012. Is Water H2O? Evidence, Pluralism and Realism. Netherland: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Chang, Hasok . 2015. “The Chemical Revolution Revisited.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49:91-98. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
De Langhe, Rogier . 2013. “Peer Disagreement under Multiple Epistemic Systems.” Synthese 190:2547-56. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
De Langhe, Rogier . 2014. “A Unified Model of the Division of Cognitive Labor.” Philosophy of Science 81 (3): 444-59. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Douven, Igor . 2009. “Uniqueness Revisited.” American Philosophical Quarterly 46 (4): 347-61. Google Scholar | |
|
Douven, Igor . 2010. “Simulating Peer Disagreements.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 41 (2): 148-57. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Dray, William H. 1957. Laws and Explanation in History. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Forber, Patrick . 2010. “Confirmation and Explaining How Possible.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 41 (1): 32-40. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Forber, Patrick . 2012. “Conjecture and Explanation: A Reply to Reydon.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 43 (1): 298-301. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Frey, Daniel, Šešelja, Dunja. Forthcoming. “Robustness and Idealization in Agent-Based Models of Scientific Interaction.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. Google Scholar | |
|
Gelfert, Axel . 2016. How to Do Science with Models: A Philosophical Primer. Cham: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Goldman, Alvin, Blanchard, Thomas. 2016. “Social Epistemology.” In The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, edited by Zalta, Edward N. Stanford University. http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2016/entries/epistemology-social/. Google Scholar | |
|
Grim, Patrick . 2009. “Threshold Phenomena in Epistemic Networks.” In AAAI Fall Symposium: Complex Adaptive Systems and the Threshold Effect, 53-60. https://aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS09/paper/view/916/1234 Google Scholar | |
|
Grim, Patrick, Singer, Daniel J., Fisher, Steven, Bramson, Aaron, Berger, William J., Reade, Christopher, Flocken, Carissa, Sales, Adam. 2013. “Scientific Networks on Data Landscapes: Question Difficulty, Epistemic Success, and Convergence.” Episteme 10 (4): 441-64. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Grüne-Yanoff, Till . 2009. “Learning from Minimal Economic Models.” Erkenntnis 70 (1): 81-99. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Hosking, S. W., Chung, S. C. S., Yung, M. Y., Li, A. K. C., Sung, J. J. Y., Ling, T. K. W., Cheng, A. F. B. 1994. “Duodenal Ulcer Healing by Eradication of Helicobacter Pylori without Anti-Acid Treatment: Randomised Controlled Trial.” The Lancet 343 (8896): 508-10. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(94)91460-5. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Kellert, Stephen H., Longino, Helen E., Waters, C. Kenneth, eds. 2006. Scientific Pluralism. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Kelp, Christoph, Douven, Igor. 2012. “Sustaining a Rational Disagreement.” In EPSA Philosophy of Science: Amsterdam 2009, edited by Henk W., de Regt, Hartmann, Stephan, Okasha, Samir, 101-10. Dordrecht: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Kinzel, Katherina . 2015. “Narrative and Evidence. How Can Case Studies from the History of Science Support Claims in the Philosophy of Science?” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49:48-57. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Kummerfeld, Erich, Zollman, Kevin J. S. 2016. “Conservatism and the Scientific State of Nature.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 67 (4): 1057-76. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Kuorikoski, Jaakko, Lehtinen, Aki. 2009. “Incredible Worlds, Credible Results.” Erkenntnis 70 (1): 119-31. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Lehtinen, Aki . 2017. “Derivational Robustness and Indirect Confirmation.” Erkenntnis 1-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-017-9902-6 Google Scholar | |
|
Lehtinen, Aki, Kuorikoski, Jaakko. 2007. “Unrealistic Assumptions in Rational Choice Theory.” Philosophy of the Social Sciences 37 (2): 115-38. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | |
|
Mäki, Uskali . 2009. “Realistic Realism about Unrealistic Models.” In The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics, edited by Kincaid, Harold, Ross, Don, 68-98. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Martini, Carlo, Pinto, Manuela Fernández. 2017. “Modeling the Social Organization of Science.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 7 (2):221-38. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Moayyedi, Paul, Soo, Shelly, Deeks, Jonathan, Forman, David, Mason, James, Innes, Michael, Delaney, Brendan. 2000. “Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation of Helicobacter Pylori Eradication Treatment for Non-Ulcer Dyspepsia.” British Medical Journal 321 (7262): 659-64. doi:10.1136/bmj.321.7262.659. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Pfleiderer, Paul . 2014. “Chameleons: The Misuse of Theoretical Models in Finance and Economics.” Revista de Economía Institucional 16 (31): 23-60. Google Scholar | |
|
Pitt, Joseph C. 2001. “The Dilemma of Case Studies: Toward a Heraclitian Philosophy of Science.” Perspectives on Science 9 (4): 373-82. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Pöyhönen, Samuli . 2017. “Value of Cognitive Diversity in Science.” Synthese 194 (11): 4519-40. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Reutlinger, Alexander, Hangleiter, Dominik, Hartmann, Stephan. 2016. “Understanding (with) Toy Models.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axx005 Google Scholar | |
|
Reydon, Thomas A. C. 2012. “How-Possibly Explanations as Genuine Explanations and Helpful Heuristics: A Comment on Forber.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 43 (1): 302-10. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Rosenstock, Sarita, O’Connor, Cailin, Bruner, Justin. 2017. “In Epistemic Networks, Is Less Really More?” Philosophy of Science 84 (2): 234-52. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Šešelja, Dunja, Straßer, Christian. 2014. “Heuristic Reevaluation of the Bacterial Hypothesis of Peptic Ulcer Disease in the 1950s.” Acta Biotheoretica 62:429-54. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | |
|
Soler, Léna, Trizio, Emiliano, Nickles, Thomas, Wimsatt, William. 2012. Characterizing the Robustness of Science: After the Practice Turn in Philosophy of Science. Vol. 292. Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Strevens, Michael . 2010. “Reconsidering Authority: Scientific Expertise, Bounded Rationality, and Epistemic Backtracking.” In Oxford Studies in Epistemology, edited by Gendler, Tamar Szabo, Hawthorne, John, vol. 3, 294-330. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Thiele, Jan C., Winfried, Kurth, Volker, Grimm. 2014. “Facilitating Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-Based Models: A Cookbook Using Netlogo and R.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (3): 11. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/17/3/11.html>.10.18564/jasss.2503 Google Scholar | |
|
Thoma, Johanna . 2015. “The Epistemic Division of Labor Revisited.” Philosophy of Science 82 (3): 454-72. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
van Riel, Raphael . 2015. “The Content of Model-Based Information.” Synthese 192 (12): 3839-58. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Weisberg, Michael, Muldoon, Ryan. 2009. “Epistemic Landscapes and the Division of Cognitive Labor.” Philosophy of Science 76 (2): 225-52. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Wilensky, Uri . 1999. “NetLogo.” Center for Connected Learning and Computer Based Modeling, Northwestern University. https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ Google Scholar | |
|
Wray, K. Brad . 2011. Kuhn’s Evolutionary Social Epistemology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Ylikoski, Petri, Aydinonat, N. Emrah. 2014. “Understanding with Theoretical Models.” Journal of Economic Methodology 21 (1): 19-36. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Zollman, Kevin J. S. 2007. “The Communication Structure of Epistemic Communities.” Philosophy of Science 74 (5): 574-87. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Zollman, Kevin J. S. 2010. “The Epistemic Benefit of Transient Diversity.” Erkenntnis 72 (1): 17-35. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Zollman, Kevin J. S. 2013. “Network Epistemology: Communication in Epistemic Communities.” Philosophy Compass 8 (1): 15-27. Google Scholar | Crossref |
