Following Incarceration, Most Released Offenders Never Return to Prison

First Published September 29, 2014 Research Article

Authors

1
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
by this author
, 2
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD, USA
by this author
, 1
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
by this author
,
1
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
by this author
, 1
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
by this author
, 1
 
Abt Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
by this author
...
First Published Online: September 29, 2014

Recent studies suggest that 50% of offenders released from state prisons return to prison within 3 to 5 years. In contrast, this article shows that roughly two of every three offenders who enter and exit prison will never return to prison. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ newly revised National Corrections Reporting Program, we examine prison admissions and releases over a 13-year period in 17 states and over shorter periods in other states to determine the rate at which individual offenders return to prison. We distinguish between the traditional event-based sampling methods for studying recidivism and our alternative offender-based method, explaining how each is useful but how the two approaches answer different policy questions.

Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., Hoge, R. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 19-52.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
Andrews, D. A., Zinger, I., Hoge, R. D., Bonta, J., Gendreau, P., Cullen, F. T. (1990). Does correctional treatment work? A clinically relevant and psychologically informed meta-analysis. Criminology, 28, 369-404.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Aos, S., Phipps, P., Barnoski, R., Lieb, R. (2001). The comparative costs and benefits of programs to reduce crime (Version 4.0). Olympia, WA: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
Google Scholar
Berk, R. (2012). Criminal justice forecasts of risk: A machine learning approach. New York, NY: Springer.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Bhati, A., Piquero, A. (2008). Estimating the impact of incarceration on subsequent offending trajectories: Deterrent, criminogenic, or null effects? Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 98, 207-253.
Google Scholar | ISI
Bonczar, T., Beck, A. (1997). Lifetime likelihood of going to state or federal prison (Special report). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Google Scholar
Bonta, J., Law, M., Hanson, K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disoriented offenders: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123-142.
Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI
Brame, R., Bushway, S. D., Paternoster, R. (2003). Examining the prevalence of criminal desistance. Criminology, 41(2), 423-448.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Bushway, S. D., Piquero, A. R., Broidy, L. M., Cauffman, E., Mazerolle, P. (2001). An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process. Criminology, 39, 491-513.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Cottle, C., Lee, R., Heilbrun, K. (2001). The prediction of criminal recidivism in juveniles: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 367-394.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
DeFina, R., Hannon, L. (2013). The impact of mass incarceration on poverty. Crime & Delinquency, 59, 562-586.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
Durose, M., Cooper, A., Snyder, H. (2014). Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Google Scholar
Gendreau, P., Little, T., Goggin, C. (1996). The meta-analysis of the predictors of adult offender rehabilitation: What works? Criminology, 34, 575-607.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Gottfredson, S., Moriarty, L. (2006). Statistical risk assessment: Old problems and new applications. Crime & Delinquency, 52, 178-200.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
Hanson, R., Bussiere, M. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-366.
Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI
Killettaz, P., Villattaz, P., Zoder, I. (2006). The effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A systematic review of the state of knowledge. Oslo, Norway: The Campbell Collaboration.
Google Scholar
Kling, J. (2006). Incarceration length, employment, and earnings. American Economic Review, 96, 863-876.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Langen, P., Levin, D. (2002). Recidivism of prisoners released in 1994. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Laub, J. H., Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. In Tonry, M. (Ed.), Crime and Justice: A Review of Research Vol. 28. (pp. 1-69). Chicago: University of Chicago Press, .
Google Scholar | Crossref
LaVigne, N., Bieler, S., Cramer, L., Ho, H., Kotonias, C., Mayer, D., . . .Samuels, J. (2014). Justice reinvestment initiative state assessment report. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Liberman, A. (2008). Synthesizing longitudinal findings. In Liberman, A. (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 3-22). New York, NY: Springer.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Listokin, Y. (2003). Does more crime mean more prisoners? An instrumental variables approach. Journal of Law & Economics, 46, 181-206.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Lowenkamp, C. T., Latessa, E. J., Holsinger, A. M. (2006). The risk principle in action: What have we learned from 13,676 offenders and 97 correctional programs? Crime & Delinquency, 52, 77-93.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
Luallen, J., Neary, K., Kling, R., Rhodes, B., Gaes, G., Rich, T. (2012). A description of computing code used to identify correctional terms and histories (NCRP White Paper #3). Cambridge, MA: Abt Associates.
Google Scholar
MacKenzie, D. L. (2006). What works in corrections? Reducing the criminal activities of offenders and delinquents. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Press.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Maruna, S. (2001) Making Good: How Ex-Convicts Reform and Rebuild Their Lives. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Nagin, D. (2005). Group-based modeling of development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Google Scholar | Crossref
Nagin, D., Land, K. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity – specification and estimation of a nonparametric mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31, 327-362.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
National Research Council . (2008). Parole, desistance from crime, and community integration. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
Google Scholar
Pettit, B., Western, B. (2004). Mass imprisonment and the life course: Race and class inequality in U.S. incarceration. American Sociological Review, 26, 151-165.
Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI
Pew Center on the States . (2011). State of recidivism: The revolving door of America’s prisons. Washington, DC: The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Google Scholar
Piquero, A. (2007). Taking stock of developmental trajectories of criminal activity over the life course. In Liberman, A. (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 23-78). New York, NY: Springer.
Google Scholar
Spelman, W. (2008). Specifying the relationship between crime and prisons. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24, 149-178.
Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI
Western, B., Kleykamp, M., Rosenfeld, S. (2004). Crime, punishment, and American inequality. In Neckerman, K. (Ed.), Social inequality (pp. 771-791). New York, NY: Russell Sage.
Google Scholar
Wheelock, D., Uggen, C. (2010). Race, poverty and punishment: The impact of criminal sanctions on racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic inequality. In Lin, A., Harris, D. (Eds.), The colors of poverty: Why racial and ethnic disparity persists (pp. 261-292). New York, NY: Russell Sage.
Google Scholar
Wildeman, C. (2009). Parental imprisonment, the prison boom, and the concentration of childhood disadvantage. Demography, 46, 265-280.
Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI

Access content

To read the fulltext, please use one of the options below to sign in or purchase access.
  • Access Options

    My Account

    Welcome
    You do not have access to this content.

    Chinese Institutions / 中国用户

    Click the button below for the full-text content

    请点击以下获取该全文

    Institutional Login

    Purchase Content

    24 hours online access to download content

    Added to Cart

    Cart is full

    There is currently no price available for this item in your region.

    Research off-campus without worrying about access issues. Find out about Lean Library here


Purchase

CAD-article-ppv for GBP29.00
CAD-article-ppv for $37.50
Single Issue 24 hour E-access for GBP312.25
Single Issue 24 hour E-access for $374.13