Abstract
Recent studies suggest that 50% of offenders released from state prisons return to prison within 3 to 5 years. In contrast, this article shows that roughly two of every three offenders who enter and exit prison will never return to prison. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ newly revised National Corrections Reporting Program, we examine prison admissions and releases over a 13-year period in 17 states and over shorter periods in other states to determine the rate at which individual offenders return to prison. We distinguish between the traditional event-based sampling methods for studying recidivism and our alternative offender-based method, explaining how each is useful but how the two approaches answer different policy questions.
References
|
Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., Hoge, R. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 19-52. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Andrews, D. A., Zinger, I., Hoge, R. D., Bonta, J., Gendreau, P., Cullen, F. T. (1990). Does correctional treatment work? A clinically relevant and psychologically informed meta-analysis. Criminology, 28, 369-404. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Aos, S., Phipps, P., Barnoski, R., Lieb, R. (2001). The comparative costs and benefits of programs to reduce crime (Version 4.0). Olympia, WA: Washington State Institute for Public Policy. Google Scholar | |
|
Berk, R. (2012). Criminal justice forecasts of risk: A machine learning approach. New York, NY: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Bhati, A., Piquero, A. (2008). Estimating the impact of incarceration on subsequent offending trajectories: Deterrent, criminogenic, or null effects? Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 98, 207-253. Google Scholar | ISI | |
|
Bonczar, T., Beck, A. (1997). Lifetime likelihood of going to state or federal prison (Special report). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Google Scholar | |
|
Bonta, J., Law, M., Hanson, K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disoriented offenders: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123-142. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Brame, R., Bushway, S. D., Paternoster, R. (2003). Examining the prevalence of criminal desistance. Criminology, 41(2), 423-448. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Bushway, S. D., Piquero, A. R., Broidy, L. M., Cauffman, E., Mazerolle, P. (2001). An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process. Criminology, 39, 491-513. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Cottle, C., Lee, R., Heilbrun, K. (2001). The prediction of criminal recidivism in juveniles: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 367-394. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
DeFina, R., Hannon, L. (2013). The impact of mass incarceration on poverty. Crime & Delinquency, 59, 562-586. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Durose, M., Cooper, A., Snyder, H. (2014). Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Google Scholar | |
|
Gendreau, P., Little, T., Goggin, C. (1996). The meta-analysis of the predictors of adult offender rehabilitation: What works? Criminology, 34, 575-607. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Gottfredson, S., Moriarty, L. (2006). Statistical risk assessment: Old problems and new applications. Crime & Delinquency, 52, 178-200. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Hanson, R., Bussiere, M. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-366. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI | |
|
Killettaz, P., Villattaz, P., Zoder, I. (2006). The effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A systematic review of the state of knowledge. Oslo, Norway: The Campbell Collaboration. Google Scholar | |
|
Kling, J. (2006). Incarceration length, employment, and earnings. American Economic Review, 96, 863-876. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Langen, P., Levin, D. (2002). Recidivism of prisoners released in 1994. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Laub, J. H., Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. In Tonry, M. (Ed.), Crime and Justice: A Review of Research Vol. 28. (pp. 1-69). Chicago: University of Chicago Press, . Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
LaVigne, N., Bieler, S., Cramer, L., Ho, H., Kotonias, C., Mayer, D., . . .Samuels, J. (2014). Justice reinvestment initiative state assessment report. Washington, DC: Urban Institute. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Liberman, A. (2008). Synthesizing longitudinal findings. In Liberman, A. (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 3-22). New York, NY: Springer. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Listokin, Y. (2003). Does more crime mean more prisoners? An instrumental variables approach. Journal of Law & Economics, 46, 181-206. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Lowenkamp, C. T., Latessa, E. J., Holsinger, A. M. (2006). The risk principle in action: What have we learned from 13,676 offenders and 97 correctional programs? Crime & Delinquency, 52, 77-93. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Luallen, J., Neary, K., Kling, R., Rhodes, B., Gaes, G., Rich, T. (2012). A description of computing code used to identify correctional terms and histories (NCRP White Paper #3). Cambridge, MA: Abt Associates. Google Scholar | |
|
MacKenzie, D. L. (2006). What works in corrections? Reducing the criminal activities of offenders and delinquents. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Maruna, S. (2001) Making Good: How Ex-Convicts Reform and Rebuild Their Lives. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Nagin, D. (2005). Group-based modeling of development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Google Scholar | Crossref | |
|
Nagin, D., Land, K. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity – specification and estimation of a nonparametric mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31, 327-362. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
National Research Council . (2008). Parole, desistance from crime, and community integration. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Google Scholar | |
|
Pettit, B., Western, B. (2004). Mass imprisonment and the life course: Race and class inequality in U.S. incarceration. American Sociological Review, 26, 151-165. Google Scholar | SAGE Journals | ISI | |
|
Pew Center on the States . (2011). State of recidivism: The revolving door of America’s prisons. Washington, DC: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Google Scholar | |
|
Piquero, A. (2007). Taking stock of developmental trajectories of criminal activity over the life course. In Liberman, A. (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 23-78). New York, NY: Springer. Google Scholar | |
|
Spelman, W. (2008). Specifying the relationship between crime and prisons. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24, 149-178. Google Scholar | Crossref | ISI | |
|
Western, B., Kleykamp, M., Rosenfeld, S. (2004). Crime, punishment, and American inequality. In Neckerman, K. (Ed.), Social inequality (pp. 771-791). New York, NY: Russell Sage. Google Scholar | |
|
Wheelock, D., Uggen, C. (2010). Race, poverty and punishment: The impact of criminal sanctions on racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic inequality. In Lin, A., Harris, D. (Eds.), The colors of poverty: Why racial and ethnic disparity persists (pp. 261-292). New York, NY: Russell Sage. Google Scholar | |
|
Wildeman, C. (2009). Parental imprisonment, the prison boom, and the concentration of childhood disadvantage. Demography, 46, 265-280. Google Scholar | Crossref | Medline | ISI |
